White House & Policy - March 21, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration overnight issued a 30-day waiver on Iranian oil sanctions, aiming to ease the global oil price surge amid ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf. This move is designed to stabilize energy markets by allowing limited Iranian oil exports to continue despite broader sanctions. The White House also signaled a potential winding down of U.S. military operations in Iran, injecting cautious optimism into markets concerned about geopolitical risk. No new executive orders were announced, but the administration is preparing for congressional hearings later today focused on the economic impact of the Iran conflict and energy security. The president is scheduled to deliver remarks this afternoon on national security and economic resilience, which investors will closely monitor for further policy direction. Market sentiment is cautious but slightly improved on the sanction waiver news, with traders weighing the potential for reduced energy price volatility against lingering geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing Iran conflict remains the dominant policy risk factor heading into the session. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures are reflecting mixed reactions to the administration’s Iran oil waiver and conflict de-escalation signals. S&P 500 futures are down modestly, consistent with the prior session’s 1.70% decline in the SPY to $648.57. The Nasdaq 100 futures are also lower, mirroring the 0.99% drop in QQQ to $587.12, as tech stocks continue to face pressure from regulatory and geopolitical headwinds. Energy sector ETFs are relatively flat pre-market, with XLE down just 0.08% at $59.31, despite oil prices climbing 3.47% to $121.43 per barrel. The waiver has not fully alleviated concerns about supply constraints, keeping oil prices elevated. The dollar index (UUP) is slightly stronger, up 0.36% to $27.68, reflecting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. Long-term Treasury bonds are selling off, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 1.47% to $86.20, indicating rising yields as investors price in potential inflationary pressures from sustained high energy prices. Gold is also down sharply, losing 3.06% to $413.38, as the dollar’s strength and easing conflict fears reduce demand for traditional safe havens. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$XOM** - The oil sanction waiver and elevated oil prices (+0.89% to $159.56) support ExxonMobil’s revenue outlook amid tight global supply. **$CVX** - Chevron benefits similarly from sustained high crude prices and potential easing of geopolitical risk. **$FDX** - FedEx (+1.16% to $360.25) may gain from anticipated stabilization in global trade flows and energy cost management. **$AXP** - American Express (+1.09% to $298.15) could see improved consumer spending resilience if the administration’s economic measures bolster confidence. **$PL** - Planet Labs (+27.15% to $34.28) is benefiting from increased defense and intelligence spending tied to geopolitical tensions. ### Potential Losers **$INTC** - Intel (-4.18% to $44.25) faces pressure from ongoing regulatory scrutiny and broader tech sector weakness. **$MU** - Micron Technology (-4.22% to $425.50) is impacted by trade uncertainty and slowing semiconductor demand. **$SNOW** - Snowflake (-3.65% to $169.00) continues to suffer from tech sell-off and AI regulatory concerns. **$ORCL** - Oracle (-3.36% to $150.30) is weighed down by valuation concerns amid the tech sector pullback. **$TSLA** - Tesla (-2.12% to $372.25) is pressured by legal risks and broader market volatility. ## Sector Exposure - **Energy:** The administration’s sanction waiver and ongoing Iran conflict keep energy sector volatility high. Elevated oil prices support producers but raise input costs for other sectors. - **Technology:** Regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical risks weigh on tech stocks, reflected in the XLK’s 2.27% decline. AI-related stocks face mixed sentiment amid policy uncertainty. - **Financials:** Financials show modest resilience (+0.18% in XLF) as investors anticipate stable consumer spending and credit conditions, supported by the administration’s economic messaging. - **Defense:** Increased defense spending and geopolitical tensions underpin demand for defense contractors, benefiting stocks like **$PL** and others tied to military contracts. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on national security and economic resilience, which could set the tone for risk appetite. - Congressional hearings on Iran conflict economic impacts, potentially influencing energy and defense sectors. - S&P Global PMI flash data at 1:45 PM, providing insight into manufacturing and services sector momentum amid policy uncertainty. - Key policy-sensitive stocks such as **$XOM**, **$CVX**, **$INTC**, and **$MU** for intraday volatility. - Continued monitoring of oil prices and Treasury yields for signals on inflation and growth outlook tied to geopolitical developments.