White House & Policy - March 23, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration overnight announced a postponement of planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline by five days. This decision follows heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing diplomatic talks with Tehran. The president emphasized a preference for diplomatic engagement over immediate military action, signaling a cautious approach to the escalating Middle East conflict. No new executive orders or regulatory actions were released overnight. However, the administration is scheduled to hold a congressional briefing later today to update lawmakers on the situation in Iran and discuss potential economic and security implications. Additionally, the Senate is expected to debate a resolution related to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, which could influence market sentiment depending on its outcome. Overall, market sentiment heading into the open is cautiously optimistic, reflecting relief over the strike postponement but tempered by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Investors are closely watching for further presidential remarks and congressional developments that could clarify the administration’s strategy. ## Market Impact Pre-market market reactions show a mixed but generally positive tone. The Dow Jones futures are up sharply, reflecting strength in industrial and financial sectors, while Nasdaq futures are essentially flat, indicating technology sector caution. The S&P 500 futures show a modest gain, consistent with a risk-on tilt amid reduced immediate conflict risk. The energy sector is under pressure, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 2.29% pre-market, as oil prices have fallen sharply on the news. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 5.39% to $111.03, reflecting easing fears of supply disruptions. Gold prices also declined 3.93% to $409.65, as safe-haven demand wanes with the de-escalation. The U.S. dollar is slightly weaker, with the UUP ETF down 0.11%, as risk appetite improves. Long-term Treasury prices are falling, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 1.43%, pushing yields higher amid reduced geopolitical risk and expectations of continued Fed tightening. Bitcoin is notably strong, up 4.18% to $70,696.50, suggesting renewed investor interest in crypto assets as an alternative risk play. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$MS** – Morgan Stanley gains 5.63% as financials rally on reduced geopolitical risk and expectations of increased deal activity. **$BKNG** – Booking Holdings up 3.63%, benefiting from improved travel sentiment amid easing Middle East tensions. **$APO** – Apollo Global Management rises 3.12%, likely boosted by optimism on private credit and asset management in a more stable geopolitical environment. **$ARM** – Arm Holdings surges 4.48%, reflecting broader tech sector resilience and AI-related growth prospects despite sector-wide caution. **$SEDG** – SolarEdge Technologies jumps 13.23%, supported by positive energy transition policies and investor rotation into clean energy stocks. **$PL** – Planet Labs soars 29.34% on strong growth outlook and increased demand for satellite data, benefiting from defense and infrastructure spending. ### Potential Losers **$XOM** – ExxonMobil down 1.62%, pressured by falling oil prices and concerns over future energy demand. **$CVX** – Chevron declines 1.88%, similarly impacted by lower crude prices and risk of prolonged conflict dampening supply concerns. **$MOS** – Mosaic plunges 9.43%, hurt by softer fertilizer demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price volatility. **$ATI** – Allegheny Technologies drops 6.68%, reflecting worries over industrial supply chain disruptions and defense spending uncertainties. **$RIVN** – Rivian falls 5.40%, facing headwinds from cautious consumer spending and supply chain concerns. **$INTC** – Intel down 3.03%, pressured by chip sector weakness and concerns over global demand. ## Trade & Tariff Watch No new tariffs were announced overnight. Trade negotiations with China and the EU remain ongoing but quiet, with no immediate developments expected today. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to global supply chains, particularly energy and raw materials, which could indirectly affect trade flows if the conflict escalates. ## Sector Exposure - **Financials:** The sector is benefiting from reduced geopolitical risk, with banks like **$MS** and **$C** rallying on expectations of increased lending and deal activity. Deregulation and bank rules remain stable with no new policy changes announced. - **Energy:** The sector faces headwinds as oil prices retreat sharply following the strike postponement. Companies like **$XOM** and **$CVX** are under pressure amid concerns about demand and supply stability. No new drilling or pipeline approvals were announced. - **Technology:** Mixed signals prevail. While broad tech ETFs like XLK are slightly down, select AI and semiconductor-related stocks such as **$ARM** and **$TSEM** show strength. No new antitrust or chip ban regulations were announced, but investors remain cautious on sector valuations. - **Healthcare:** The sector shows mild gains, supported by stable policy outlook and positive analyst upgrades such as **$CVS**. No new drug pricing or FDA regulatory changes were reported. ## What to Watch Today - Congressional briefing on Iran situation and U.S. foreign policy updates. - Senate debate on Middle East resolution, which could impact market risk sentiment. - S&P Global PMI flash reports at 1:45 PM, providing early economic activity signals. - Unit Labor Costs and Productivity data at 12:30 PM, important for inflation and Fed policy outlook. - Watch key policy-sensitive stocks like **$MS**, **$XOM**, **$ARM**, and **$SEDG** for intraday volatility. - Monitor Treasury yields and dollar movements for clues on risk appetite and monetary policy expectations. - Risk factors include potential escalation in Iran conflict, congressional gridlock on foreign policy, and unexpected regulatory announcements.