Catalyst Calendar - March 25, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Major Catalysts Mentioned **Iran War and U.S. Peace Plan** - Date: March 25, 2026 - Why it matters: The U.S. has reportedly drafted a 15-point peace plan aimed at ending the Iran conflict, stirring cautious optimism in markets. This development has already influenced oil prices, which have tumbled over 6%, and sparked rallies in stocks and bonds. The geopolitical risk surrounding the Middle East remains a key driver of energy prices and market volatility. - Stocks affected: Energy sector names such as **EOG**, **EIX**, **XOM** (data not available), and defense-related companies may be impacted. **Arm Holdings Launches In-House AI Chip** - Date: TBD (announcement reported) - Why it matters: Arm announced its first in-house AI chip, expected to generate $15 billion in annual revenue. This marks a strategic pivot from licensing to chip manufacturing, potentially disrupting the AI semiconductor market and benefiting partners like **META** and **NVDA**. - Stocks affected: **ARM**, **META**, **NVDA** **Micron Technology’s Aggressive Capex Increase** - Date: TBD - Why it matters: Micron is ramping up capital expenditures far beyond its peers to capitalize on AI chip demand. This aggressive investment signals confidence in long-term growth but also raises concerns about execution and capital allocation. - Stocks affected: **MU**, semiconductor suppliers like **AMAT**, **LRCX** **Merck’s $6.7 Billion Acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals** - Date: TBD - Why it matters: Merck is expanding its oncology portfolio with a major buyout, which could accelerate its growth in cancer treatments and impact its valuation positively. - Stocks affected: **MRK** **SpaceX IPO Filing** - Date: This week (week of March 23, 2026) - Why it matters: SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file for a mammoth IPO, which could be one of the largest tech offerings, attracting significant investor interest and impacting the aerospace and tech sectors. - Stocks affected: Data not available (private company) ## Earnings on Deck - **KBH** - Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript available (March 25, 2026) - Watch for guidance amid war-related headwinds and lowered price targets. - **Braze, Inc. (BRZE)** - Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript available - Stock surged 18.82% premarket, indicating strong market reaction to recent results. - **CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)** - Presentation at Roth Conference (Date TBD) - Watch for updates on environmental tech growth. - **17 Education & Technology Group Inc. (YQ)** - Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript available - Growth and margin gains to monitor. - **TT Electronics plc (TTGPF)** - Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript available - Profit and cash flow improvements noted. - **Merck (MRK)** - Nearing acquisition deal, watch for earnings impact and pipeline updates. - **Micron Technology (MU)** - Data not available on exact earnings date but watch for commentary on capex and AI chip demand. - **Applied Materials (AMAT)** - Strong AI chip demand noted, earnings impact to watch. - **Arm Holdings (ARM)** - No specific earnings date but momentum from AI chip launch is a key focus. ## Economic Events - S&P Global PMI Flash Reports (Manufacturing, Services, Composite) - March 24, 2026 - Show mixed signals with slight slowing in services and composite indexes, indicating a cautious economic outlook amid geopolitical tensions. - Unit Labor Costs Revised Q4 2025 - March 24, 2026 - Actual 4.4% vs. forecast 3.5%, signaling rising labor cost pressures. - MBA Mortgage Rates and Contract Rates - March 25, 2026 - Rates have risen to highest levels since October, impacting housing market and consumer credit. - Current Account Q4 2025 - March 25, 2026 - Improved deficit but still large, relevant for currency and trade-sensitive stocks. - API Weekly Oil Inventory Data - March 24, 2026 - Significant crude build of 3.984M barrels, influencing oil price dynamics. ## Regulatory & Legal - No explicit FDA or court rulings with dates mentioned in the headlines. ## What's NOT Dated But Worth Tracking - Bitcoin ETFs inflows of $2.5 billion in a month, nearing erasure of YTD losses. Watch for crypto market resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty. - Alphabet’s accelerated quantum computing timeline targeting 2030 commercial breakthrough. This could reshape cloud and AI sectors. - Meta’s top executives receiving stock options as AI race intensifies, signaling internal confidence and retention efforts. - Starbucks CEO compensation and strategy challenges relative to Chipotle’s success. - Clear Secure hitting an inflection point in identity verification technology. - The ongoing impact of the Iran conflict on global energy supply chains, fuel hoarding, and commodity prices. - Cathie Wood’s ARK fund activity, including recent sales and buys, which could influence innovation-focused stocks. - The potential impact of the U.S. Senate’s Clarity Act on Coinbase and the broader crypto exchange sector. ## Highest Conviction Catalyst - What: U.S. Drafted 15-Point Peace Plan to End Iran Conflict - When: March 25, 2026 - Why it matters: This diplomatic development is the most significant near-term catalyst, as it directly influences global oil supply fears, geopolitical risk premiums, and market sentiment. The immediate market response has been a sharp decline in oil prices and a rally in stocks and bonds, reflecting hopes for reduced conflict risk. The outcome of these talks will likely dictate energy sector performance and broader market stability in the coming weeks. - Trade idea: Consider energy stocks with exposure to Middle East supply such as **EOG**, **EIX**, and defense contractors. Also, monitor oil futures and related ETFs for volatility-driven trading opportunities. Technology and AI-related stocks like **ARM**, **NVDA**, and **META** remain attractive on secular growth themes but could be influenced by broader risk sentiment shifts. --- This briefing integrates explicit dates and events from the headlines and contextualizes them with current market data, providing a focused view on key catalysts and market-moving developments.