White House & Policy - March 25, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration has signaled a cautious but proactive approach to the ongoing Middle East tensions, with a newly drafted 15-point peace proposal aimed at de-escalating the Iran conflict. This diplomatic initiative, announced overnight, reflects a strategic pivot toward conflict resolution, which has injected a degree of optimism into the markets. The president is expected to address the nation later today to elaborate on this peace plan and outline next steps, which could further influence market sentiment. In parallel, the administration has released updated labor cost data for Q4 2025, showing a higher-than-expected 4.4% increase in unit labor costs versus the 3.5% forecast. This data suggests ongoing wage pressures that could feed into inflation concerns and influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. Additionally, the Department of Commerce reported a narrower current account deficit of $190.7 billion for Q4 2025, better than the forecasted $211 billion, indicating some improvement in the trade balance. No major legislative votes or congressional hearings are scheduled today, but market participants will closely monitor the president’s remarks and any follow-up statements from key administration officials on both the Iran peace plan and economic data. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures are reflecting cautious optimism fueled by the administration’s peace proposal, with the Dow Jones futures up notably, supporting the broader risk-on mood. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are also higher, albeit with more modest gains, indicating selective sector rotation rather than broad-based enthusiasm. The dollar is slightly firmer, supported by the positive economic data on the current account and labor costs, which may reinforce expectations of continued Fed vigilance on inflation. Treasury bonds are rallying, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) up 0.45%, as investors seek safety amid geopolitical uncertainty despite the peace talks. Gold prices have surged 3.83%, reflecting safe-haven demand amid ongoing conflict risks and inflation concerns. Energy markets are reacting negatively to the peace proposal, with oil prices (USO) down 1.04% as hopes for a resolution reduce fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. This dynamic is pressuring energy stocks but providing relief to sectors sensitive to higher energy costs. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$ARM** – The stock surged 8.83% pre-market on news of a new AI chip initiative supported by the administration’s emphasis on domestic technology innovation and chip manufacturing. This aligns with policy priorities to bolster U.S. semiconductor leadership. **$AMAT** – Applied Materials gained 3.91% as the administration’s focus on advanced manufacturing and AI chip production benefits semiconductor equipment suppliers. **$C** – Citigroup rose 2.82% amid expectations that stable economic data and improved trade balances will support financial sector earnings and credit conditions. **$XOM** – ExxonMobil edged up 1.28% benefiting from ongoing energy sector support despite oil price dips, as geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated. **$CHWY** – Chewy’s 10% jump reflects optimism around consumer spending resilience and potential policy support for e-commerce and retail sectors. ### Potential Losers **$COIN** – Coinbase fell 7.21% following renewed regulatory scrutiny and the Clarity Act’s legislative hurdles, which could delay crypto market reforms. **$INTU** – Intuit declined 4.77% as higher labor costs and inflation concerns weigh on software and services providers. **$MU** – Micron Technology dropped 4.61% despite aggressive capex plans, as investors remain cautious on semiconductor demand amid macro uncertainty. **$SNOW** – Snowflake’s 6.20% decline signals investor wariness on cloud software valuations amid mixed economic signals and regulatory risks. **$ABSI** – Absci’s 6.14% drop may reflect broader biotech sector caution amid shifting FDA regulatory dynamics. ## Sector Exposure - **Technology:** The administration’s emphasis on AI and semiconductor self-sufficiency is boosting chipmakers and equipment suppliers like **$ARM** and **$AMAT**, while regulatory challenges continue to pressure crypto and software firms. - **Financials:** Positive economic data and improved trade balances support financials, with **$C**, **$MS**, and **$BLK** showing gains. However, inflation and labor cost pressures remain a risk. - **Energy:** Oil prices are retreating on peace hopes, causing mixed reactions in energy stocks. While geopolitical risks persist, the sector faces headwinds from lower crude prices, impacting names like **$CVX**. - **Healthcare:** Modest gains in healthcare ETFs reflect steady policy outlooks, though drug pricing and regulatory scrutiny remain watch points. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on the Iran peace proposal, which could drive market sentiment and risk appetite. - Release of S&P Global PMI flash data at 1:45 PM, providing further insight into manufacturing and services sector momentum amid geopolitical uncertainty. - Monitoring of Treasury auction results and bond market reactions for clues on inflation expectations and Fed policy. - Key policy-sensitive stocks such as **$ARM**, **$AMAT**, **$C**, and **$COIN** for intraday volatility based on evolving news flow. - Potential legislative developments or regulatory announcements related to crypto markets and semiconductor industry support. In summary, today’s trading session is poised to be shaped by the administration’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, mixed economic data, and ongoing sector-specific policy initiatives. Market participants should remain alert to geopolitical developments and policy signals that could drive sector rotation and volatility.