White House & Policy - March 31, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration overnight signaled a potential de-escalation in the ongoing Iran conflict, with reports indicating the president is willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, aiming to reduce military tensions while maintaining strategic leverage over critical oil shipping lanes. The administration also advanced a $2.7 billion loan for the Stibnite Gold Project through the U.S. Export-Import Bank, reflecting continued support for domestic mining and resource development. No new executive orders or regulatory actions were announced overnight. However, the president is expected to deliver remarks later today, likely addressing the evolving Middle East situation and its economic implications. On Capitol Hill, key hearings on the labor market and economic outlook are scheduled, including the release of JOLTS job openings data and consumer confidence reports, which will provide further context for the administration's policy stance. Market sentiment heading into the open is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East and supportive fiscal measures. However, uncertainty remains due to the complex geopolitical environment and ongoing inflationary pressures. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures show a mixed but generally positive reaction to the administration’s signals on Iran. The Dow Jones futures are up, reflecting strength in industrial and financial sectors, while the Nasdaq 100 futures show modest gains, indicating cautious optimism in technology stocks. The S&P 500 futures also point to a positive open, supported by easing geopolitical risk. The U.S. dollar is slightly stronger, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty, with the UUP ETF up 0.22%. Long-term Treasury bonds rallied, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) up 1.34%, suggesting investors are seeking duration amid mixed economic signals. Oil prices surged 3.59% to $128.66 per barrel, reflecting supply concerns despite the potential war de-escalation, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Gold also gained 1.20%, supported by geopolitical risk and inflation fears. Sector-wise, financials are leading gains pre-market, with XLF up 2.34%, driven by optimism around loan growth and regulatory stability. Healthcare is also performing well, up 1.35%, as drugmakers benefit from supportive policy and pipeline progress. Conversely, energy stocks are under pressure, down 0.69%, despite rising oil prices, likely due to concerns over longer-term supply chain disruptions and regulatory uncertainty. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$BX** - Blackstone benefits from increased private credit demand amid market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. **$MS** - Morgan Stanley gains from rising financial sector optimism and increased small-business lending initiatives. **$BMY** - Bristol-Myers Squibb stands to gain from healthcare policy stability and recent pipeline advancements. **$FDS** - FactSet Research Systems benefits from raised FY2026 guidance and strong earnings, reflecting confidence in data services. **$PYPL** - PayPal could see upside from easing regulatory scrutiny and increased digital payment adoption amid economic uncertainty. **$SPGI** - S&P Global benefits from increased demand for risk analytics and financial data services in volatile markets. ### Potential Losers **$MU** - Micron faces pressure from softness in memory pricing and regulatory concerns impacting technology hardware. **$WDC** - Western Digital is down sharply amid sector-wide memory weakness and valuation concerns. **$HPE** - Hewlett Packard Enterprise suffers from margin pressures and cautious outlook amid competitive tech landscape. **$AMLX** - Amylyx Pharmaceuticals declined on trial enrollment completion and uncertainty around FDA approvals. **$PHR** - Phreesia dropped significantly after a substantial outlook cut and negative sentiment in healthcare services. **$SYY** - Sysco sees a sharp decline likely due to concerns over rising input costs and inflationary pressures on foodservice. ## Trade & Tariff Watch No new tariffs or trade negotiations were announced overnight. However, the ongoing Iran conflict continues to impact global energy supply chains, with disruptions to Russian oil exports and drone strikes on Baltic ports. These supply chain tensions are contributing to volatility in commodity markets and could influence trade policy discussions in the near term. ## Sector Exposure - **Financials:** The sector is benefiting from regulatory stability and increased lending activity. Morgan Stanley (**$MS**), Blackstone (**$BX**), and Charles Schwab (**$SCHW**) are notable gainers. - **Energy:** Despite rising oil prices, energy stocks face headwinds from geopolitical supply disruptions and regulatory uncertainties. ExxonMobil (**$XOM**) and Chevron (**$CVX**) show muted gains, while smaller producers face more volatility. - **Healthcare:** Drug pricing policies remain stable, supporting companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb (**$BMY**) and Johnson & Johnson (**$JNJ**). However, some biotech firms face pressure from trial results and FDA reviews. - **Technology:** The sector is mixed, with software and data analytics firms like FactSet (**$FDS**) and CrowdStrike (**$CRWD**) rallying, while hardware and memory companies such as Micron (**$MU**) and Western Digital (**$WDC**) face headwinds. - **Industrials:** The sector is slightly weaker amid geopolitical uncertainty, though defense contractors like General Dynamics (**$GD**) remain in focus due to ongoing government contracts. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on the Iran conflict and economic outlook, which could move markets significantly. - Release of JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence data, providing insight into labor market strength and consumer sentiment. - Congressional hearings on economic policy and potential infrastructure spending updates. - Key levels on financial stocks like **$MS**, **$BX**, and **$SCHW**, which are leading pre-market gains. - Oil price movements and supply chain developments related to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East tensions.