Daily Brief - March 31, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Market Recap The U.S. equity markets rallied strongly on Tuesday, closing March with a notable surge that helped offset a challenging month. The S&P 500 climbed 2.94% to close at $650.52, recovering from an opening near $639 and trading within a range of $637.98 to $651.54. The Nasdaq 100 led the charge with a 3.59% gain, closing at $578.31 after opening at $564.29, buoyed by strength in technology and semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 2.39%, finishing at $462.86, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index surged 3.46% to $247.91, signaling broad-based buying interest across market capitalizations. Market sentiment improved markedly as investors digested signs of potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, particularly comments from former President Trump signaling a willingness to end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical optimism, combined with easing volatility (VIX dropped 14.4%), encouraged dip-buying and short covering, especially in growth and tech sectors. Volume was robust, with 152.8 million shares traded on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 95.9 million on the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), reflecting strong participation. Breadth was positive, with most sectors advancing, though energy lagged amid falling oil prices. ## Top Stories That Moved Markets - **Iran War De-escalation Hopes:** Former President Trump indicated a readiness to end the Iran conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a broad market rally. This news lifted risk appetite, particularly in tech and growth stocks, while energy prices retreated. Key tickers affected included **$AAPL**, **$META**, **$NVDA**, and **$TSLA**, all rallying sharply. - **Nvidia’s $2 Billion Investment in Marvell:** Nvidia’s strategic $2 billion investment and partnership with Marvell Technology (**$MRVL**) boosted chip stocks, fueling a semiconductor sector rally. Marvell shares surged 14.42%, while Nvidia gained 5.50%, reflecting strong AI infrastructure demand. - **Biogen Acquires Apellis:** Biogen (**$BIIB**) announced a $5.6 billion acquisition of Apellis Pharmaceuticals (**$APLS**), which soared 136.04% on the news. Despite Biogen’s shares slipping 2.26%, the deal underscores consolidation in biotech. - **Oracle Job Cuts Amid AI Spending:** Oracle (**$ORCL**) shares jumped 5.99% despite reports of thousands of job cuts as the company ramps AI investments, highlighting investor focus on AI-driven growth. - **Nike Sales Warning:** Nike (**data not available**) forecasted a surprise sales drop due to weakness in China, pressuring sentiment in consumer discretionary, though the sector still gained overall. ## Biggest Winners - **$APLS** +136.04% – Skyrocketed on Biogen’s $5.6 billion acquisition announcement. - **$DWSN** +29.61% – Dawson Geophysical rallied on strong Q4 earnings and guidance. - **$TRX** +22.21% – TRX Gold surged on robust Q2 results and analyst optimism. - **$SNAP** +14.43% – Snap rallied after activist investor Irenic suggested strategic changes to boost value. - **$MRVL** +14.42% – Marvell surged following Nvidia’s $2 billion investment and partnership. - **$IBRX** +14.71% – ImmunityBio gained on FDA warning letter resolution and pipeline progress. - **$CDE** +13.76% – Coeur Mining jumped on a new gold acquisition and positive analyst coverage. - **$RILY** +8.65% – B. Riley surged after a strong Q4 earnings call. ## Biggest Losers - **$JILL** -23.40% – J.Jill plunged after a disappointing Q4 earnings report and weak guidance. - **$TE** -21.89% – TE Connectivity dropped sharply on earnings miss and revenue shortfall. - **$AMS** -19.89% – American Shared Hospital Services fell following Q4 earnings miss. - **$RPAY** -16.67% – Repay Holdings declined amid M&A uncertainty. - **$JFIN** -14.02% – Jiayin Group sold off after Q4 earnings miss. - **$BOSC** -10.00% – BOS Better Online Solutions declined despite annual growth due to market caution. - **$BKYI** -10.12% – BIO-key International dropped on Q4 revenue dip. - **$AIRJ** -11.38% – AirJoule Technologies declined post earnings and legal officer stock sales. ## Sector Scorecard - **Leaders:** Technology (+4.46%) led the market, powered by chipmakers and AI-related stocks benefiting from Nvidia’s investment and easing geopolitical tensions. Consumer Discretionary (+3.14%) and Financials (+2.15%) also outperformed, supported by optimism in growth and banking sectors. Healthcare (+1.52%) gained on biotech M&A activity. - **Laggards:** Energy (-1.81%) lagged as oil prices fell nearly 2%, pressured by Iran’s readiness to end hostilities without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reducing supply disruption fears. Consumer Staples (-0.04%) was flat, reflecting cautious sentiment amid inflation concerns. ## After-Hours Movers - **$NKE** – Nike reported earnings after the bell, forecasting a surprise sales drop due to China weakness, which may pressure shares in the next session. - **$PHR** – Phreesia sank 26% after a substantial outlook cut and analyst downgrades. - **$ORCL** – Oracle’s shares rose in after-hours trading following reports of job cuts amid AI spending ramp-up. ## Crypto & Commodities Bitcoin closed at $68,116.15, up 2.06%, supported by renewed investor interest and Moody’s rating of a first-of-its-kind crypto bond deal. Ethereum gained 3.54% to $2,095.80, reflecting strength in the broader crypto market. Gold rallied 3.71% to $429.98 on safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and hopes for an Iran war resolution. Oil prices fell 1.99% to $127.25 per barrel, retreating from recent highs as traders weighed the potential end of the Middle East conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. ## Tomorrow Setup Investors should monitor several key developments in the upcoming session: - **Economic Data:** The JOLTS Job Openings report for February showed a slight decline to 6.882 million, below forecasts, indicating some cooling in the labor market. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Chicago PMI for March also showed modest softness, with PMI at 52.8 versus 55 expected, suggesting slower manufacturing growth. Consumer Confidence rose slightly to 91.8, beating estimates, which may support consumer-related stocks. - **Earnings to Watch:** Nike’s post-close earnings and guidance will be scrutinized for further insight into consumer discretionary trends, especially in China. Other notable upcoming earnings include FactSet (**$FDS**) and Nuvve Holding (**$NVVE**), both of which recently reported Q4 results with mixed reactions. - **Stocks with Momentum:** Semiconductor stocks like **$MRVL**, **$LRCX**, and **$MU** remain in focus after Nvidia’s investment and strong sector performance. Biotech names tied to M&A, such as **$APLS** and **$BIIB**, will also be watched closely. Tech giants **$AAPL**, **$META**, and **$MSFT** could continue to lead if geopolitical optimism persists. - **Risk Factors:** Despite the rally, risks remain from geopolitical uncertainties, including the potential for renewed Middle East tensions. Oil price volatility could impact energy and inflation outlooks. Additionally, market participants will watch for any signs of slowing economic growth from upcoming data, which could temper the rally. Overall, the market appears poised for continued volatility but with a cautiously constructive tone as March ends on a strong note. Investors should stay alert to geopolitical developments and economic data that could influence the trajectory in April.