White House & Policy - April 10, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview Overnight, the administration signaled cautious optimism on the geopolitical front as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks continue, though tensions remain fragile. The president has not issued new executive orders but is expected to address the nation later today on the status of Middle East peace efforts and their implications for energy security and inflation. The administration also released updated economic data showing a mixed growth picture, with Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.5% versus a forecast of 0.7%, and consumer spending moderating. These figures underscore ongoing inflationary pressures despite easing core PCE inflation. Congress is scheduled to hold hearings on banking sector risks this afternoon, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Powell expected to testify on emerging cyber risks related to AI models, specifically referencing Anthropic’s Mythos AI. This highlights growing regulatory focus on AI’s systemic financial risks. Additionally, there is heightened attention on trade policy, with no new tariffs announced but ongoing negotiations with key partners like the EU and China continuing behind the scenes. Market sentiment heading into the open is cautiously positive, supported by easing geopolitical fears and solid earnings beats from major tech and industrial firms. However, inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty keep volatility elevated. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures are reflecting the cautious optimism, with S&P 500 futures up modestly, consistent with the overnight gains in major indices: SPY is up 0.73%, QQQ up 0.89%, and DIA up 0.58%. The Russell 2000 is also up 0.74%, indicating broad-based risk appetite. Financial sector ETFs show mild gains (+0.18% in XLF), while energy stocks are under pressure, with XLE down 1.42%, likely due to ongoing concerns about supply disruptions despite Saudi Arabia maintaining steady oil exports via the Red Sea. The U.S. dollar is slightly weaker (UUP down 0.25%), reflecting easing geopolitical risk and a modest risk-on environment. Long-term Treasury bonds are selling off, with TLT down 0.41%, as investors price in potential inflation persistence and a less dovish Fed stance. Gold (GLD +0.83%) and oil (USO +0.82%) are both higher, the former benefiting from safe-haven demand and the latter from supply concerns linked to Middle East tensions. Tech and industrial sectors are outperforming, with XLK up 0.61% and XLI up 1.23%, supported by strong earnings and optimism around AI and infrastructure spending. Healthcare is slightly down (-0.23% in XLV), pressured by ongoing drug pricing debates and regulatory scrutiny. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$AMZN** – Strong earnings beat (+5.88%) and positive sentiment around AI investments and cloud infrastructure. The administration’s focus on AI risk management indirectly supports cloud and AI service providers. **$INTC** – Shares up 5.14% amid optimism on chip demand and supply chain resilience, benefiting from ongoing government support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. **$META** – Up 3.88%, boosted by AI integration and a multi-year partnership with Qualcomm for AR devices, aligning with federal interest in tech innovation. **$ETN** – Industrial strength (+5.04%) driven by infrastructure spending expectations and solid earnings, benefiting from government emphasis on rebuilding and modernization. **$CARR** – Up 5.94%, likely benefiting from industrial and infrastructure policy tailwinds. ### Potential Losers **$XLE** – Energy sector down 1.42%, pressured by geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain disruptions despite Saudi oil export stability. **$ADBE** – Down 4.02%, facing pressure from AI competition and regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and AI ethics. **$ADSK** – Shares down 7.61%, impacted by similar AI-related competitive pressures and cautious guidance. **$NOW** – ServiceNow shares down 9.56%, reflecting analyst downgrades and concerns over AI integration risks. **$PLTR** – Down 8.13%, likely impacted by broader AI sector volatility and regulatory uncertainty. **$SAIL** – Down 9.75%, pressured by sector-specific regulatory and reimbursement concerns. ## Trade & Tariff Watch No new tariffs were announced overnight. However, trade negotiations continue quietly with the EU and China, focusing on critical minerals and technology supply chains. The administration is reportedly pushing for a critical minerals deal with the EU to reduce Chinese dominance, which could impact sectors reliant on these materials. Retaliatory measures remain subdued as diplomatic efforts to ease Middle East tensions progress. Supply chain disruptions persist in energy and tech sectors due to geopolitical risks, but no new trade restrictions or sanctions have been imposed. ## Sector Exposure - **Technology:** The administration’s focus on AI risk management and cyber threats is putting regulatory scrutiny on AI firms and cloud providers. This is causing volatility in AI-related stocks like **$ADBE**, **$ADSK**, and **$PLTR**. However, partnerships like **$META** with Qualcomm signal long-term growth potential. - **Energy:** Despite stable Saudi oil exports, energy stocks are pressured by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The administration’s cautious stance on energy security and pipeline approvals is keeping the sector volatile. - **Financials:** Mild gains in financials reflect cautious optimism ahead of congressional hearings on AI-related cyber risks. Banks like **$C** and **$MS** show modest gains, supported by strong earnings and regulatory engagement. - **Industrials:** Infrastructure spending and modernization efforts are boosting industrial stocks like **$ETN**, **$CARR**, and **$GE**, benefiting from government emphasis on rebuilding. - **Healthcare:** Slight weakness in healthcare ETFs reflects ongoing drug pricing debates and regulatory scrutiny, impacting stocks like **$ABT** and **$HUM**. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on Middle East peace talks and energy security, which could move energy and geopolitical-sensitive sectors. - Congressional hearings featuring Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell on AI cyber risks, with potential market impact on tech and financial stocks. - Q4 GDP and inflation data releases reinforcing the inflation narrative and influencing Fed policy expectations. - Key earnings reports and analyst updates on AI and tech companies, including **$NOW**, **$ADBE**, and **$PLTR**, which could drive sector volatility. - Monitoring oil prices and supply chain developments amid ongoing Middle East tensions and Saudi export stability. Investors should remain alert to policy-driven volatility, especially in technology and energy sectors, as regulatory and geopolitical risks continue to shape market dynamics.