White House & Policy - April 11, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration overnight has signaled a cautious but proactive stance on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. While no new executive orders were issued, the White House confirmed ongoing diplomatic efforts, including scheduled peace talks between U.S. and Iranian delegations in Pakistan. These talks aim to de-escalate regional tensions that have been impacting global energy markets and supply chains. Additionally, the administration released updated inflation data showing headline CPI rising 0.9% month-over-month in March, matching forecasts, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 0.2%. This data will influence Federal Reserve policy discussions and market expectations for interest rates. The president is expected to make remarks later today addressing economic stability and inflation management, while Congress prepares for hearings on the federal budget deficit, which widened to $164 billion in March. Overall, market sentiment is mixed heading into the open. The geopolitical situation remains a key risk, but the administration’s diplomatic engagement provides some relief. Inflation data reinforces the Fed’s cautious approach. Investors will closely watch the president’s remarks and congressional budget hearings for further policy signals. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures show a modest divergence reflecting policy uncertainties. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.38%, buoyed by optimism in technology stocks amid ongoing AI sector enthusiasm. In contrast, Dow Jones futures are down 0.55%, weighed by concerns over energy sector weakness and geopolitical risks. The energy sector is under pressure as oil futures declined 1.69% on easing fears of supply disruptions following diplomatic talks. The dollar is slightly weaker, with the UUP ETF down 0.15%, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand. Long-term Treasury prices are also down, with the 20+ Year TLT ETF falling 0.24%, signaling a modest rise in yields as inflation data keeps rate hike expectations alive. Healthcare and financial sectors are lagging, with XLV down 1.35% and XLF down 1.09%, respectively. This reflects investor caution ahead of earnings and regulatory scrutiny. Technology ETFs like XLK are gaining 0.39%, supported by strong earnings upgrades and positive AI narratives. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$AMZN** – Gains from ongoing AI investments and positive market sentiment around tech innovation. The stock is up 2.03% pre-market, reflecting investor confidence in its growth trajectory. **$NVDA** – Benefiting from AI sector tailwinds and a 2.43% pre-market rise, supported by strong demand for AI chips amid geopolitical easing. **$AVGO** – Up 4.69%, Broadcom is favored due to its semiconductor exposure and recent rating upgrades tied to data center growth. **$AEHR** – Up 2.60%, this semiconductor equipment maker is gaining on optimism about chip sector expansion and supply chain normalization. **$GS** – Up 1.16%, reflecting strength in financials despite sector-wide weakness, supported by solid earnings outlook and blockchain/AI integration initiatives. ### Potential Losers **$XOM** – Down 1.69%, pressured by falling oil prices amid easing Middle East conflict fears and concerns over demand volatility. **$NOC** – Down 2.44%, Northrop Grumman faces headwinds from defense budget uncertainties and geopolitical shifts reducing near-term contract visibility. **$BIIB** – Down 2.34%, Biogen’s stock is pressured despite a price target raise, reflecting broader healthcare sector weakness and regulatory concerns. **$AKAM** – Suffering a sharp 16.70% drop, likely tied to competitive pressures and negative sentiment around cybersecurity disruptors. **$COST** – Down 3.15%, Costco is weighed down by inflation concerns impacting consumer spending and margin pressures. **$NKE** – Down 3.00%, reflecting ongoing brand challenges and negative market perception despite recent earnings. ## Sector Exposure - **Energy:** The sector is vulnerable due to geopolitical risks and oil price volatility. The easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf has led to a pullback in oil prices, pressuring majors like **$XOM** and **$CVX**. - **Technology:** Continues to benefit from AI-driven optimism, with chipmakers and software firms seeing upgrades and strong investor interest. However, cybersecurity firms face disruption risks. - **Healthcare:** Faces regulatory and pricing pressure, as seen with **$BIIB**. The sector is also sensitive to inflation data and budget discussions impacting Medicare and Medicaid funding. - **Financials:** Mixed signals as banks like **$GS** show strength, but the broader XLF ETF is down amid concerns over credit conditions and regulatory scrutiny. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on economic policy and inflation management, which could influence market direction. - Congressional budget hearings focusing on the widening federal deficit and potential fiscal policy changes. - Progress and outcomes from U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, which remain a key geopolitical risk factor. - Inflation data follow-up and Fed commentary, as markets digest the latest CPI figures and their implications for interest rates. - Earnings reports and guidance from key technology and financial firms, which may drive sector-specific moves. This session will be shaped by the interplay of geopolitical developments, inflation dynamics, and fiscal policy signals, requiring close attention to Washington and market responses.