Macro View - April 13, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary The market staged a notable rebound today, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.04% to close at $686.53, erasing losses incurred since the onset of the Iran conflict. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 1.24% gain, closing at $618.63, supported by strong tech sector momentum. The Russell 2000 led with a 1.77% advance, reflecting a broad-based risk-on sentiment. This recovery came despite ongoing geopolitical tensions following the U.S. announcement of a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint. Market participants appeared to digest the heightened risk, focusing instead on resilient earnings expectations and hopes for diplomatic progress. Geopolitical risks related to the Middle East conflict continued to weigh on energy markets, pushing oil prices sharply higher. The U.S. blockade threat of Iranian ports sparked a surge in crude prices, with the USO ETF rising 2.66% to $128.14. This energy shock has complicated the inflation outlook, as higher oil costs feed into broader price pressures. However, the market’s positive equity performance suggests investors are balancing these inflation concerns against strong corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy. The dollar showed modest strength amid the risk-off tone in currencies, but it did not derail the equity rally. ## Economic Data Reaction - **Existing Home Sales (Mar):** 3.98M actual vs 4.06M expected, a decline of -3.6% vs prior 2.7% increase. The weaker-than-expected housing data underscored ongoing headwinds from elevated mortgage rates and tight supply, contributing to a cautious tone in the real estate sector. Despite this, the broader market shrugged off the housing softness, focusing on the earnings season kickoff. ## Fed & Central Banks There was no new Fed commentary today, but market positioning reflected expectations of a cautious Fed stance amid mixed inflation signals and geopolitical uncertainty. The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) release tomorrow will be closely watched for further clues on inflation trajectory and potential Fed policy adjustments. The Fed nominee Warsh cleared a Senate hurdle, signaling continued leadership stability at the central bank. ## Rates & Bonds - 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) closed up 0.27% at $86.73, reflecting demand for long-duration safe havens amid geopolitical risks. - 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) rose 0.22% to $95.48, indicating modest flattening pressure on the yield curve. - 1-3 Year Treasury (SHY) edged up 0.07% to $82.47, showing some short-term rate stability. The bond market’s modest rally suggests cautious positioning as investors weigh inflation risks from rising energy prices against slowing growth signals from housing data. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar index (UUP) gained slightly by 0.11% to $27.47, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid the Iran blockade announcement and faltering peace talks. Dollar strength pressured some multinational equities but was not enough to offset the broad equity gains. Emerging market currencies showed some weakness as risk sentiment improved only modestly. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil (USO) surged 2.66% to $128.14, driven by supply concerns from the Strait of Hormuz blockade and ongoing Middle East tensions. The spike in crude prices is a key inflation risk and a potential drag on global growth. - Gold (GLD) was flat, closing at $437.10 (-0.01%), as investors balanced safe-haven demand against a firmer dollar and rising real yields. - Silver (SLV) declined 0.61% to $68.66, underperforming gold amid risk-on equity flows. - Natural Gas (UNG) fell 1.11% to $10.65, pressured by milder weather forecasts and shifting energy demand patterns. ## Global Markets Close - Europe closed mixed to slightly lower, with major indices retreating amid the renewed Middle East conflict fears and energy price volatility. The FTSE 100 and DAX showed modest declines, reflecting concerns over economic growth and inflation. - Asia is set for a cautious open tonight, with markets digesting the fallout from failed U.S.-Iran peace talks and the looming Hormuz blockade. Chinese equities may face pressure amid mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainty. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Investors will focus on the March Producer Price Index (PPI) release at 12:30 PM ET, with expectations for a 1.1% month-over-month increase and 4.6% year-over-year rise, signaling persistent inflation pressures. The PPI ex Food/Energy figure will also be scrutinized for underlying inflation trends. Additionally, Treasury will hold a 12-month bill auction, which may provide insights into demand for short-term government debt amid market volatility. Earnings season continues with Goldman Sachs reporting, where investors will assess the impact of macro headwinds on financial sector profitability. The geopolitical situation remains a key risk factor, with any developments on U.S.-Iran talks or the Hormuz blockade likely to influence market sentiment.