Day Trade Cheat Sheet - July 08, 2026 (Morning)

 ## MARKET MOOD: MIXED Overnight sentiment is cautious as geopolitical tensions escalate following U.S. strikes on Iran, which have reignited concerns over Middle East stability and energy supply. This has led to a selloff in U.S. futures and pressure on equities, while oil prices surged sharply. Meanwhile, AI-related stocks face mixed signals amid valuation concerns and new model rollouts. ## TOP 5 HEADLINES 1. Trump says Iran ceasefire is 'over' after U.S. strikes → Impact: Heightened geopolitical risk is pressuring equities and lifting oil prices. 2. Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels → Impact: AI sector jitters weigh on tech stocks despite long-term growth prospects. 3. OpenAI to publicly release GPT-5.6 AI models, ending government-requested limits → Impact: Potential catalyst for AI adoption but raises regulatory and competitive questions. 4. Alibaba jumps nearly 10% as China AI stocks rally → Impact: Positive momentum in Chinese tech counters some global risk aversion. 5. Exxon Mobil shares up 1.03% after hours as oil stocks gain on Middle East tensions → Impact: Energy sector benefits from supply concerns, supporting select energy longs. ## PRE-MARKET MOVERS ### Longs (Bullish Catalysts) **$NVDA** - Analyst upgrades and AI leadership despite valuation pullback **$TOST** - Positive analyst recommendations on CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ **$MSFT** - Strong AI positioning and analyst upgrades **$NOW** - Upgrades and AI resilience narrative **$XOM** - Rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions boost upstream earnings outlook **$BZH** - Surged 14% on raised Dream Finders bid ### Shorts (Bearish Catalysts) **$Saratoga** - Q2 earnings missed estimates, revenue fell short **$NFLX** - Stock down 42% from highs, earnings due July 16 with cautious sentiment **$ORCL** - Stock plunged 25% H1 2026, AI challenges cited **$FCEL** - Plunging stock amid sector weakness **$LKQ** - Weak Q2 results **$RIVN** - Stock plunged on recent news ## INDEX BIAS **SPY:** BEARISH - Geopolitical risks and oil price surge are pressuring broad market sentiment. **QQQ:** MIXED - Tech faces AI valuation reset but select names like **$NVDA** and **$MSFT** remain supported. **IWM:** NEUTRAL - Small caps show resilience but remain vulnerable to macro uncertainty. ## SECTORS **Favor:** Energy - Elevated oil prices and supply concerns underpin strong sector momentum. **Avoid:** Consumer Discretionary - Heightened risk aversion and earnings misses weigh on retail and discretionary stocks. ## CATALYST WATCH - 08:30 AM ET: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (watch for labor market signals amid geopolitical uncertainty) - 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (key for assessing employment strength) - 04:00 PM ET: Netflix earnings preview (due July 16, watch for pre-earnings sentiment shifts) - Fed meeting minutes expected soon, market awaits clues on rate path amid inflation and geopolitical risks. ## BOTTOM LINE **Today's Play:** Selective Heightened geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Iran strikes are driving risk-off moves in equities and a sharp oil price rally, favoring energy stocks like **$XOM** and **$OXY**. AI stocks face a challenging environment with valuation pressures despite positive news on new model releases and analyst upgrades for leaders like **$NVDA** and **$MSFT**. Traders should be selective, focusing on energy and resilient tech names while avoiding discretionary and weaker earnings names like **$Saratoga** and **$NFLX**. The biggest risk remains escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on global markets.