Daily Brief - July 25, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Pre-Market Overview U.S. equity futures are trading cautiously ahead of the open, reflecting mixed sentiment following a volatile week marked by geopolitical tensions and AI sector developments. Asian markets showed resilience overnight, with Japan’s flash PMI signaling the strongest manufacturing output growth since 2014, suggesting sustained economic momentum despite inflation concerns. European markets rallied modestly, supported by easing inflation expectations and a positive earnings tone. The key overnight development is the surge in oil prices, with Brent crude breaking above $100 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions. This has injected uncertainty into energy markets and broader risk appetite. Meanwhile, major tech companies including Alphabet and Tesla saw notable sell-offs last week due to concerns about rising AI-related spending. The market is also digesting a new coalition of tech leaders, including Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Satya Nadella, advocating for open-weight AI models, which could influence regulatory and investment trends in the AI space. ## Top Stories Moving Markets - **Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Satya Nadella Back Open-Weight AI Models** Leading tech CEOs have publicly supported open-weight AI models, urging U.S. policymakers to back open AI frameworks. This contrasts with companies like Alphabet and Amazon, which remain more closed. The endorsement by **$TSLA**, **$META**, and **$MSFT** could accelerate innovation and competition in AI, impacting valuations and investor sentiment in the tech sector today. - **Waymo Plans to Exit Uber Partnership Amid Robotaxi Rivalry** Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle arm, Waymo, is reportedly ending its partnership with Uber to pursue independent expansion in Austin and Atlanta. This move reshapes the competitive landscape in robotaxi services and could pressure **$GOOG** and **$UBER** shares as investors reassess growth prospects and strategic positioning. - **Brent Crude Tops $100 on Middle East Tensions** Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, driving energy sector volatility. This development supports gains in energy stocks like **$COP**, **$CVX**, and **$EOG**, while raising concerns about inflation and input costs for other sectors. - **Alphabet and Tesla Sell-Off on AI Spending Concerns** Alphabet and Tesla shares declined sharply last week amid worries over surging AI investment costs. This has sparked broader tech sector caution, with investors scrutinizing AI spending efficiency. The sell-off may continue to weigh on **$GOOG**, **$GOOGL**, and **$TSLA** in today’s session. - **SpaceX Investor Reports $200K Loss, Highlights Trading Challenges** An investor disclosed a $200,000 loss on SpaceX (**$SPCX**) shares, underscoring the volatility and complexity of trading private space and tech stocks. This may temper enthusiasm for SpaceX-related investments and influence sentiment toward space tech equities. ## Stocks to Watch Today - **$AAPL** – Data not available; however, Apple’s upcoming earnings and ongoing AI competition with Alphabet remain key themes. - **$AMZN** – Earnings preview underway; investors will focus on product expansions amid weak consumer macro conditions. - **$GOOG / $GOOGL** – Impacted by Waymo’s Uber split and AI spending concerns; volatility expected. - **$META** – Backing open AI models alongside Musk and Nadella; AI strategy developments to watch. - **$MSFT** – Part of the open-weight AI coalition; AI investments and regulatory outlook critical. - **$TSLA** – AI spending worries and SpaceX-related investor losses may pressure shares. - **$SPCX** – SpaceX’s market performance and investor sentiment remain focal points. - **$UBER** – Potential impact from Waymo’s exit and autonomous vehicle market shifts. - **$COP**, **$CVX**, **$EOG** – Energy names likely to benefit from oil price surge above $100. - **$BX** – Oppenheimer maintained outperform rating and raised price target to $140, signaling confidence. - **$SOFI** – Q2 preview highlights product expansions but warns of tough growth environment. - **$AU** – Strong Q1 profit growth of 37% and AI initiatives position the bank favorably. ## Sector Setup - **Technology:** Mixed outlook as AI spending concerns weigh on major players like Alphabet and Tesla, but open AI model advocacy by leaders such as Microsoft and Meta could spur innovation and investment. Watch for volatility. - **Energy:** Positive momentum driven by Brent crude surpassing $100 amid Middle East tensions. Energy stocks are poised for gains, supported by tight supply and geopolitical risk. - **Financials:** Selective strength in names like Blackstone (**$BX**) and AU Small Finance Bank (**$AU**) due to earnings beats and dividend increases. Watch for broader market impact from rising rates and inflation. - **Healthcare:** Pfizer's dividend yield attracts attention, though management remains cautious. Sector impact muted but dividend-focused investors may find opportunities. ## Economic Calendar & Fed No major economic releases or Federal Reserve events are scheduled for today. Market focus remains on corporate earnings and geopolitical developments. ## Crypto & Commodities - **Bitcoin (BTC)** is stable around $64,105.60, showing negligible change overnight. - **Ethereum (ETH)** slipped slightly to $1,855.65, down 0.21%. - Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driven by Middle East tensions, supporting energy sector strength. - Gold and other commodities data not mentioned. ## Trading Game Plan - Monitor tech sector volatility closely, especially **$GOOG**, **$TSLA**, **$META**, and **$MSFT**, as AI spending and regulatory developments unfold. - Favor energy stocks benefiting from the oil price rally; geopolitical risks remain a key driver. - Watch for earnings catalysts in **$AMZN**, **$SOFI**, **$AU**, and **$BX** for potential momentum plays. - Be cautious on stocks exposed to AI spending concerns and private space ventures like **$SPCX**. - Keep an eye on geopolitical headlines, particularly Middle East developments, which could impact market sentiment and commodity prices. - With no major economic data today, focus on corporate earnings and sector-specific news for trading opportunities.