Macro View - February 10, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary Today’s trading was influenced heavily by macroeconomic signals and earnings releases, particularly in the context of anticipated data releases that are likely to shape future Federal Reserve policy. The S&P 500 and other major indices experienced volatility as investors digested mixed earnings reports and preliminary economic indicators that suggested a cooling off in consumer spending, which could prompt the Fed to reconsider its current interest rate trajectory. The market sentiment appeared cautious as participants braced for the delayed retail sales data, expected to offer further insights into consumer behavior amidst rising inflationary pressures. Global tensions, particularly surrounding oil supply disruptions related to U.S.-Iran relations, also contributed to market fluctuations. Oil prices edged lower, but concerns about potential escalations kept commodity markets on edge. As the dollar showed signs of softening against other major currencies, investors began adjusting their positions in anticipation of forthcoming economic reports and central bank commentary that could sway monetary policy expectations. ## Economic Data Reaction - **Retail Sales:** Data is anticipated tomorrow, and the market is expecting a slowdown in consumer spending, which could influence Fed rate cuts. - **Labor Costs:** The growth of labor costs cooled in the fourth quarter, sparking discussions on its potential impact on inflation and subsequent Fed policy adjustments. ## Fed & Central Banks Comments from Fed officials today pointed towards a cautious stance on interest rate adjustments. Fed's Logan noted that while inflation is showing signs of slowing, it is not sufficient to warrant immediate rate cuts. The overall sentiment within the Fed remains focused on monitoring economic indicators closely, suggesting that any future cuts will be carefully evaluated in light of incoming data. ## Rates & Bonds - 10-Year yield: 3.95% (down 3 basis points) - 2-Year yield: 4.45% (down 5 basis points) - The yield curve remains inverted, indicating persistent market concerns about economic slowdown despite recent inflationary pressures. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness today, influenced by the mixed economic outlook and expectations surrounding future Fed policy. The dollar's decline buoyed commodities, particularly precious metals, while also affecting equities in sectors sensitive to currency fluctuations. The euro and yen gained against the dollar, reflecting the broader shifts in investor sentiment and risk appetite. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil: Closed at $78.50 per barrel, down $1.20, influenced by concerns over Iranian tensions and potential supply disruptions. - Gold: Closed at $1,925 per ounce, up $10, supported by a weaker dollar and investor demand amid economic uncertainty. - Silver: Closed at $24.50 per ounce, slightly down, reflecting mixed sentiment in the precious metals market. ## Global Markets Close - Europe: Mixed performance, with the FTSE 100 up 0.3% while the DAX fell 0.5%, indicating regional divergences in economic sentiment. - Asia: The Nikkei closed at a record high, up 2.20%, driven by strong corporate earnings and positive economic forecasts following the recent elections. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Investors will be looking forward to the delayed retail sales data, which is expected to reveal insights into consumer spending trends. Additionally, the upcoming commentary from the Fed will be critical, particularly as market participants assess the implications for interest rates in light of the economic data.