Macro View - February 11, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary Today's trading reflected a complex interplay of macroeconomic signals, particularly driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data released earlier in the day. The Employment Report indicated that 130,000 jobs were added in January, surpassing forecasts and contributing to a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This robust labor market data prompted a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, leading to a notable uptick in Treasury yields. The market appeared to grapple with the implications of continued strong employment on inflation and monetary policy, as investors shifted focus to the potential for the Fed to maintain or even raise rates in response to persistent job growth. Despite the strong jobs report, equity markets displayed a mixed performance, with major indices showing little overall movement by the closing bell. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day with minor fluctuations, indicating a market hesitant to commit in light of shifting macroeconomic narratives. As traders weighed the implications of the employment figures against a backdrop of rising inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, volatility was evident, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty in the economic landscape. ## Economic Data Reaction - **Employment Report:** 130K Jobs Added In January, Higher Than Expected - Market reaction was muted with mixed performances in equities, as traders adjusted their Fed rate cut expectations. ## Fed & Central Banks The job growth reported today led market participants to reassess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. With unemployment dipping to 4.3% and job additions exceeding forecasts, traders began to price in a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in the near future. The Fed's stance may pivot towards maintaining higher rates longer than previously anticipated if economic indicators continue to point to strength. Additionally, Australia's central bank governor hinted at potential rate hikes if inflation continues to become entrenched, signaling a global tightening trend that could influence U.S. monetary policy discussions as well. ## Rates & Bonds - 10-Year yield: 3.56% (+0.12%) - 2-Year yield: 4.24% (+0.08%) Today's employment data induced a rise in Treasury yields, reflecting market sentiment that the Fed may not be as aggressive in cutting rates as previously expected. The yield curve remains inverted, a signal of economic uncertainty, with short-term rates still higher than long-term rates. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness against major currencies as traders reacted to the strong jobs data, which initially supported the dollar before profit-taking set in. The dollar index dipped by 0.3% today. This dollar softness has implications for commodities, particularly oil and gold, as a weaker dollar often supports higher prices for these assets. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil: $67.25 (+1.5%) - Gold: $1,870.50 (-0.8%) Oil prices saw an uptick today, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran. However, gold prices fell, reflecting a stronger risk appetite among investors amid the solid jobs report, which diminished demand for safe-haven assets. ## Global Markets Close - Europe: Mixed performance with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% while the DAX fell 0.3%. - Asia setup for tonight indicates a cautious opening, with focus on the implications of U.S. job growth and inflation. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Key data to watch includes the U.S. inflation report and any comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the economic outlook. Additionally, market participants will keep an eye on geopolitical developments, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran relations, as tensions may influence oil prices and broader market sentiment.