Macro View - February 12, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary Today's trading session was heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly investor sentiment around inflation and employment data. Following the release of stronger-than-expected job numbers, markets reacted with volatility, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between economic strength and inflationary pressures. The labor market's resilience suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain its hawkish stance longer than previously anticipated, which sent shockwaves through tech-heavy indices. The broader market struggled, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both experiencing significant declines as fears surrounding interest rate hikes resurfaced. Economic indicators pointed to a robust job market, but the uncertainty about future monetary policy led to a risk-off approach among investors, resulting in a sell-off in growth stocks. The backdrop of rising oil prices and persistent inflation concerns further exacerbated market jitters. ## Economic Data Reaction - **U.S. Jobs Report:** 263,000 jobs added in January vs. 185,000 expected - Markets initially rallied but reversed course as inflationary fears took hold. - **U.S. Unemployment Rate:** Held steady at 3.5% - Contributed to concerns about sustained wage growth fueling inflation. ## Fed & Central Banks Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to combating inflation, emphasizing that job growth could result in prolonged interest rate hikes. Market participants are now bracing for a potential 50 basis point increase in the upcoming FOMC meeting, prompted by today’s jobs report. ## Rates & Bonds - 10-Year yield: 3.54% (+0.12%) - 2-Year yield: 4.22% (+0.10%) - The yield curve steepened slightly, indicating investor expectations of higher rates in the short term while signaling concerns about long-term economic growth. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar exhibited strength against major currencies, particularly as economic data reinforced the Fed's hawkish outlook. This strength pressured commodities and risk assets, contributing to declines in tech stocks and other growth-oriented sectors. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil: Closed at $81.50, up $2.00 - Concerns over supply from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts supported prices. - Gold: Closed at $1,860, down $20 - The rising dollar and interest rate concerns diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven. ## Global Markets Close - Europe: Stocks closed mixed, with the FTSE 100 down 0.5% while the DAX managed a slight gain of 0.2% as investors reacted to regional earnings reports and inflation data. - Asia: Markets are set to open lower as traders expect the U.S. sell-off to influence sentiment. The Nikkei futures point to a decline amid rising concerns over inflation and interest rate trajectories. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Key data releases to watch include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI figures, which will provide insight into inflation trends. Additionally, the market will be closely monitoring any Fed commentary leading up to the next meeting, particularly in light of today's employment figures.