Macro View - February 15, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary Today's trading session was heavily influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties and developments in the AI sector. Investors reacted to mixed signals from the economic landscape, particularly focusing on inflation trends and the potential for further interest rate adjustments by central banks. The market showed a cautious approach as participants weighed the implications of rising geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global supply chains. Additionally, the narrative surrounding artificial intelligence and its disruptive potential continued to dominate sentiment, with tech stocks experiencing volatility. Companies involved in AI developments, such as OpenAI and its recent hirings, spurred discussions about future growth and investment opportunities in the sector. This focus on technology came as broader market indices experienced fluctuations, reflecting investor sentiment that is torn between optimism for growth and concerns over inflationary pressures. ## Economic Data Reaction - **Jobless Claims:** 240,000 vs 250,000 expected - Markets reacted positively, viewing the lower-than-expected claims as a sign of labor market resilience. - **Consumer Sentiment Index:** 88.3 vs 90.0 expected - The decline in consumer sentiment raised concerns about future spending, contributing to a mixed market reaction. ## Fed & Central Banks Comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy, with discussions centering around the potential need for further rate hikes if inflation persists. The tone suggested a willingness to remain data-dependent, leading to heightened speculation about the timing and magnitude of future adjustments. This has left investors uncertain, impacting trading volumes and contributing to volatility in equities and bonds. ## Rates & Bonds - 10-Year yield: 3.85%, down 5 basis points - 2-Year yield: 4.20%, down 3 basis points - The yield curve remains inverted, signaling potential recessionary concerns as the market anticipates continued tightening by the Fed. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar exhibited strength against major currencies, driven by the positive sentiment from economic data and Fed comments. A robust dollar typically pressures commodity prices and can dampen earnings for multinational companies, contributing to a mixed performance in equities. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil: $78.50, unchanged - Geopolitical risks continue to be a focal point, with traders eyeing developments related to Iran and potential supply disruptions. - Gold: $5,050, down $100 - Profit-taking occurred after recent gains, with traders locking in profits as market sentiment shifted. ## Global Markets Close - Europe: Major indices closed mixed; the DAX gained 0.5% while the FTSE 100 fell 0.2%, reflecting divergent economic outlooks across the region. - Asia setup for tonight: Asian markets are expected to react cautiously, influenced by the mixed signals from U.S. economic data and ongoing geopolitical tensions. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Key indicators to watch include PCE inflation data and unemployment figures, which are critical in shaping the outlook for interest rates. Additionally, several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, providing potential insights into monetary policy direction.