Macro View - February 17, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary Today's trading was heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly ongoing concerns surrounding inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Market participants reacted to the latest commentary from Fed officials, with comments suggesting a more cautious approach to rate cuts. Fed’s Daly emphasized the need for a careful analysis of inflation trends and the potential impacts of artificial intelligence on productivity, indicating that the central bank may maintain its current rate levels longer than previously anticipated. This contributed to volatility in both bond and equity markets, as investors reassessed their expectations for future monetary policy. Simultaneously, global geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, added another layer of uncertainty. Oil prices remained stable as traders weighed the potential implications of these talks on supply dynamics. Adani's announcement of a significant investment in AI data centers also highlighted the ongoing shift in capital allocation towards technology, further influencing market sentiment. ## Economic Data Reaction - **Jobless Claims Report:** 230,000 vs. 240,000 expected - The market reacted positively, suggesting resilience in the labor market. ## Fed & Central Banks Fed officials, including Mary Daly, reiterated the importance of controlling inflation, suggesting that the central bank remains committed to its targets. The consensus is that the Fed may hold rates steady for a longer period while monitoring inflationary pressures and productivity growth linked to technological advancements. This sentiment contributed to a cautious mood among investors, weighing on tech stocks particularly sensitive to rate changes. ## Rates & Bonds - 10-Year yield: 3.95% (-0.05%) - 2-Year yield: 4.10% (-0.08%) The yield curve continues to reflect a flattening trend, with longer-term rates falling more sharply than shorter-term rates. This may signal market expectations of a slower growth environment, coupled with the potential for the Fed to maintain a tighter stance for an extended period. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar exhibited strength today, supported by safe-haven flows amidst geopolitical uncertainties and solid economic data. The dollar index rose by 0.4%, putting pressure on emerging market currencies and commodities priced in dollars. This strength weighed on commodity prices, particularly gold, which saw a decline amid the stronger dollar backdrop. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil: $63.50/barrel (unchanged) - Gold: $4,950/ounce (-$50) - Silver: $22.50/ounce (-$1.25) Oil prices remained stable as geopolitical tensions balanced out supply concerns. However, gold and silver faced pressure as the stronger dollar diminished their appeal. ## Global Markets Close - Europe: The major indices closed mixed, with the DAX down 0.3% and the FTSE 100 up 0.2%, reflecting differing investor sentiment across regions. - Asia setup for tonight: Asian markets are expected to react cautiously to the U.S. market performance and ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly in light of the U.S.-Iran talks. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Key economic data releases include the U.S. CPI report, which will provide further insights into inflation trends and potentially influence Fed policy direction. Additionally, market participants will be monitoring any updates from the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, as outcomes could significantly impact global energy markets. The market will also look for any further commentary from Fed officials that could clarify the central bank's outlook on interest rates.