Macro View - February 21, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary Today's trading activity was notably influenced by the Supreme Court's recent decision to uphold tariffs that President Trump had imposed, increasing concerns about inflation and its impact on the economy. Market participants reacted sharply, with the uncertainty regarding the global trade landscape prompting a sell-off in equities. The decision has reignited fears that elevated tariffs could suppress consumer spending and corporate margins, further complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation without tipping the economy into recession. This backdrop contributed to a volatile trading environment, with investors reassessing their positions amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in relation to Iran. Additionally, the ongoing discussions regarding economic policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy have added layers of complexity to the market dynamics. With speculation about potential rate cuts in 2026, traders are weighing the implications of today's tariff ruling against the backdrop of broader economic indicators and inflationary pressures that remain elevated. As the market digests these developments, the focus shifts to how these factors may shape monetary policy and economic growth moving forward. ## Economic Data Reaction - **No significant economic data released today.** ## Fed & Central Banks Fed President Neel Kashkari commented on the implications of recent tariff decisions, indicating potential challenges in achieving the central bank's inflation targets. The Fed's commitment to controlling inflation remains strong, but the added pressure from tariffs could necessitate a reassessment of their economic outlook and policy trajectory. ## Rates & Bonds - 10-Year yield: 3.45% (+0.15%) - 2-Year yield: 4.25% (+0.10%) - The yield curve has steepened slightly as investors adjusted their expectations regarding future rate hikes in response to the tariff ruling and its potential impact on economic growth. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar exhibited strength today, benefiting from risk-off sentiment amid heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding trade policies. The dollar index rose by 0.5%, putting additional pressure on commodities and emerging market currencies, which reacted negatively to the prospect of increased tariffs. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil: $75.30/barrel (+1.80%) - Gold: $1,865/ounce (+1.10%) - Silver: $23.50/ounce (+2.50%) - The rise in gold and silver prices reflects a flight to safety amid the uncertainty created by the tariff decision, while oil prices increased on supply concerns associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. ## Global Markets Close - **Europe:** Major indices closed lower, with the DAX down 1.2% and the FTSE 100 off by 0.9%, reflecting concerns over trade dynamics and economic growth potential. - **Asia setup for tonight:** Asian markets are expected to open lower as investors react to the U.S. market's volatility and the implications of the tariff ruling on global trade. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Key macro events to watch for tomorrow include the release of initial jobless claims data and any Fed officials' speeches that may provide further insight into the central bank's outlook on inflation and interest rates. Additionally, market participants will be keenly observing any developments related to U.S.-China trade relations, which could further influence market sentiment.