Daily Brief - February 23, 2026

 ## Market Overview Market sentiment is cautious amid renewed trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down some of former President Trump's tariffs, creating a complex environment for trade relations. This ruling has injected volatility into markets, with investors weighing the implications for global supply chains and corporate earnings. The tariff uncertainty, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Middle East tensions, has kept risk appetite subdued. Equity markets showed mixed performance as investors digested these developments. The S&P 500 is described as "stuck," reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum. The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks remain in focus, with Nvidia and Alphabet drawing particular attention due to their AI leadership and upcoming earnings. However, concerns about AI's impact on enterprise software companies and borrowing costs have introduced some caution. The energy sector is also under the spotlight, with oil prices fluctuating on geopolitical risks and U.S.-Iran negotiations. The dominant narrative centers on trade policy uncertainty and the evolving AI landscape. Tariff rulings are reshaping expectations for U.S. trade relations, while AI advancements continue to drive sector rotations and investor interest. Investors are balancing optimism about AI-driven growth with caution over regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds. ## Top Stories Moving Markets - **U.S. Supreme Court Tariff Ruling and Trade Policy Uncertainty** - The Supreme Court struck down parts of Trump's tariffs, leading to a retreat in the U.S. dollar and stocks. - This ruling limits Trump's leverage but does not end uncertainty for trade partners. - The EU and other allies are responding cautiously, with the EU trade chief urging a pause on U.S. deal approvals. - Impacted tickers include broad market ETFs and multinational companies sensitive to tariffs. - This matters as it injects volatility into markets and complicates global trade dynamics. - **Nvidia Earnings and AI Sector Focus** - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on February 25 is highly anticipated. - Analysts expect Nvidia to outperform in the second half of 2026, driven by AI demand. - Several billionaires reportedly sold Nvidia shares ahead of earnings, raising questions about insider sentiment. - AI's impact on software companies is mixed, with some facing higher borrowing costs and scrutiny. - Key tickers: **$NVDA**, **$GOOGL**, **$META**, **$AMZN**. - This matters as Nvidia is a bellwether for AI sector health and broader tech market direction. - **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Markets** - U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing, with expectations for a Friday meeting if Iran submits a proposal. - Oil prices are volatile, with some forecasts predicting a surge to $75-$90 per barrel if conflict escalates. - Saudi Aramco is selling Jafurah condensate cargoes to U.S. and Indian firms, signaling active energy trade. - Impacted tickers: **$XOM**, **$CVX**, **$COP**, **$ENL**. - This matters as energy prices influence inflation, corporate margins, and geopolitical risk premiums. - **Novo Nordisk Weight-Loss Drug Trial Results** - Novo Nordisk shares dropped 10% after a new weight-loss drug failed to match Eli Lilly's efficacy in a key trial. - This setback rippled through Denmark’s stock market. - Impacted ticker: **$NVO**. - This matters as it challenges Novo Nordisk’s leadership in obesity treatment and affects pharma sector sentiment. - **Merck to Create Separate Cancer Business** - Merck announced plans to spin off its cancer business to offset patent loss on Keytruda. - This strategic move aims to preserve growth and shareholder value. - Impacted ticker: **$MRK**. - This matters as it reflects pharma sector adaptation to patent cliffs and pipeline challenges. ## Stocks in Focus - **$NVDA** - Anticipated earnings on Feb 25 with strong AI demand expected; insider selling noted. - **$GOOGL** - AI-driven search growth highlighted; analysts maintain bullish outlook. - **$META** - Developing own cloud business; expanded partnership with Nvidia. - **$AMZN** - Named top AI pick by Morgan Stanley; AWS acceleration expected. - **$NVO** - Shares down 10% after weight-loss drug trial disappointment. - **$MRK** - Plans to spin off cancer business to mitigate Keytruda patent loss. - **$COP** - Exploring divestment of Permian Basin properties amid energy sector shifts. - **$ENL** - Enel announces $63 billion investment plan focused on renewables; shares jump. - **$PPL** - Announced $1 billion equity units offering, signaling capital raise. - **$FPT** - Freshpet earnings beat EPS by $0.23 but missed revenue estimates; stock down 3%. - **$YORW** - York Space Systems initiated with Hold and Outperform ratings; space sector interest rising. - **$MONY** - Posted 2% growth in 2025; EBITDA guidance stable for 2026 amid insurance headwinds. ## Sector Watch - **Technology ($XLK):** - Mixed sentiment with AI driving growth but raising borrowing costs and scrutiny. - Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon lead AI innovation narratives. - Software companies face margin pressures and rating downgrades. - Data centers seek credit ratings to fund AI expansion. - **Energy ($XLE):** - Oil prices fluctuated amid U.S.-Iran talks and geopolitical risks. - Saudi Aramco active in condensate sales; Enel plans massive renewables investment. - ConocoPhillips exploring asset divestments. - Natural gas prices spiked due to a powerful U.S. blizzard and LNG exports. - **Healthcare ($XLV):** - Pharma sector impacted by Novo Nordisk trial failure and Merck’s cancer business spin-off. - Medtronic highlighted as a resilient dividend stock. - Biotech stocks showing mixed performance; some funds increasing stakes amid volatility. - **Financials ($XLF):** - Private credit market facing structural challenges; Blue Owl’s woes cloud outlook. - Banks report record profits of $300 billion in 2025. - Tariff uncertainty weighs on currency and credit markets. - Several upgrades and downgrades in bank and fintech stocks. - **Consumer Discretionary ($XLY):** - Domino’s beats U.S. sales estimates, shares rise. - Lululemon opens 100th EMEA store, signaling international expansion. - Retailers face tariff-related cost pressures but some benefit from tariff rollbacks. ## Economic Data & Fed - No direct new economic data or Fed commentary reported. - Dollar softened following Supreme Court tariff ruling, reflecting policy uncertainty. - Inflation easing noted in Sri Lanka (2.4% in January) and Italy (1.0% YoY in January). - Treasury yields held steady amid tariff policy risks. ## Crypto & Commodities - **Bitcoin/Ethereum:** - Bitcoin price volatile; fell below $65,000 amid whale selling and tariff jitters, then rebounded to $66,300. - Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin accelerated ether sales, raising market concerns. - Crypto ETFs saw historic $3.8 billion outflows over five weeks. - XRP Ledger launched a 'members-only' exchange; XRP price fell 4%. - **Gold:** - Gold prices extended gains on renewed tariff jitters. - Debate ongoing whether gold remains a safe haven or momentum play. - **Oil:** - Oil prices pulled back amid U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and tariff uncertainty. - Goldman Sachs raised Q4 oil price forecast due to tighter OECD inventories. - Natural gas prices surged on a powerful U.S. blizzard and increased LNG exports. ## Key Takeaways - Trade policy remains the primary market risk, with the Supreme Court tariff ruling injecting volatility but not resolving uncertainty. - AI continues to drive sector rotation, with Nvidia and other tech giants leading, though software companies face margin and borrowing cost pressures. - Energy markets are sensitive to geopolitical developments, especially U.S.-Iran talks, with oil and natural gas prices reacting accordingly. - Pharma sector faces headwinds from trial setbacks and patent expirations, prompting strategic shifts like Merck’s cancer business spin-off. - Crypto markets remain volatile amid regulatory scrutiny, whale activity, and evolving infrastructure developments.