Macro View - February 23, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Macro Snapshot Markets are navigating a complex macroeconomic landscape marked by renewed trade policy uncertainty and cautious central bank signals. The U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling that partially strikes down former President Trump’s tariffs has injected fresh volatility into trade relations, complicating the outlook for global supply chains and corporate earnings. While some tariffs were removed, the administration’s new tariff threats and ongoing trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, particularly in sectors sensitive to global trade flows. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve commentary remains data-dependent, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasizing that the March rate decision hinges on the upcoming labor market report rather than external factors like the Supreme Court ruling. This cautious stance underscores the Fed’s balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting growth amid mixed economic signals. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have held relatively steady despite tariff jitters, reflecting a market digesting these competing forces. Commodity markets are also reflecting geopolitical and policy uncertainties. Gold and silver prices have surged sharply, with gold rising 2.99% to $473.29 and silver up 10.31% to $78.33, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff-related risks. Oil prices edged up modestly to $81.39, supported by ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and geopolitical tensions that keep supply concerns alive. These moves highlight the market’s sensitivity to both inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk factors. ## Overnight Global Markets - **Asia:** Asian equities showed mixed performance amid trade uncertainty following the U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling. South Korean and Hong Kong markets advanced, buoyed by optimism over tariff relief and strong tech sector momentum, while other regional markets remained cautious. The Indian rupee’s rebound was noted but requires sustained foreign inflows to maintain strength. Overall, Asia remains watchful of trade developments and their impact on export-driven economies. ## Economic Data Today No major economic releases are scheduled for today, leaving markets to focus on ongoing geopolitical developments and corporate earnings updates. ## Fed & Central Banks Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed’s March interest rate decision will primarily depend on the upcoming U.S. jobs report, signaling that the labor market remains the key barometer for policy adjustments. This suggests that the Fed is maintaining a cautious, data-driven approach amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation concerns. There was no new commentary from the ECB or BOJ overnight, but the Bank of Japan may consider a rate hike in March if the yen continues to weaken, according to a former policymaker, indicating potential tightening in Japan’s ultra-loose policy. ## Rates & Currencies U.S. Treasury yields have remained relatively stable despite tariff-related uncertainty. The 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) rose slightly by 0.12%, while the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) edged down 0.03%. The short-term 1-3 Year Treasury ETF (SHY) increased marginally by 0.05%. The U.S. dollar weakened modestly, with the UUP ETF down 0.25%, reflecting some relief from the tariff ruling but ongoing concerns about trade policy unpredictability. This dollar softness has supported precious metals and commodities but has created a cautious backdrop for equities, especially in export-sensitive sectors. Equities showed a mixed picture overnight: the S&P 500 (SPY) gained 0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rose 0.35%, driven by tech and AI-related stocks, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) declined 0.55%, reflecting small-cap vulnerability amid macro uncertainty. The Dow Jones (DIA) was flat, indicating a cautious market tone. ## Commodities - Oil prices edged higher to $81.39, supported by ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and geopolitical tensions that maintain supply risk premiums. - Gold surged 2.99% to $473.29, and silver jumped 10.31% to $78.33, driven by safe-haven buying amid renewed tariff jitters and trade uncertainty. - Natural gas also rose 2.97% to $12.15, boosted by a powerful winter storm impacting the U.S. Northeast and increased LNG export demand. ## Macro Risks to Watch - **Trade Policy Uncertainty:** The partial invalidation of Trump-era tariffs by the U.S. Supreme Court has created a volatile and unpredictable trade environment. New tariff threats and ongoing disputes could disrupt supply chains and dampen global trade growth. - **Fed Policy Path:** The Fed’s March rate decision remains uncertain and heavily dependent on the labor market data. Any surprises in employment figures could shift market expectations for rate cuts or hikes. - **Geopolitical Tensions:** U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Middle East geopolitical risks continue to influence oil prices and broader risk sentiment. Escalations could exacerbate inflationary pressures and market volatility. ## Positioning Implications Traders should maintain a cautious stance heading into today’s session, balancing optimism from easing tariff pressures against the risks of renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. The resilience in large-cap tech and AI-related stocks suggests selective risk-taking is warranted, but small caps and trade-sensitive sectors may remain under pressure. Fixed income markets are likely to stay range-bound until clearer signals emerge from the Fed’s labor market assessment. Commodity markets, particularly precious metals, may continue to attract safe-haven flows amid tariff and geopolitical jitters. Overall, a focus on macro data and policy developments will be critical for positioning in the near term.