Catalyst Calendar - February 23, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Today's Catalyst Results How did scheduled events play out? - **Allison Transmission (ALSN) Q4 Earnings** - Result: EPS of $1.18 missed estimates of $1.54, but sales of $737 million beat the $723 million consensus. FY2026 sales guidance set between $5.575 billion and $5.925 billion. Market reaction: Shares declined 3.24% reflecting disappointment on EPS miss despite sales beat and solid guidance. - **Forward Air (FWRD) Q4 Earnings** - Result: EPS of $(0.91) missed estimate of $(0.48), sales of $631.23 million beat $629.46 million estimate. Market reaction: Shares fell 2.95% on earnings miss despite revenue beat. - **ACV Auctions (ACVA) Q4 Earnings** - Result: Revenue growth continued amid profitability concerns. Market reaction: Shares dropped 10.12%, signaling investor concerns over profitability despite growth. - **U.S. Global Investors (GROW) Q2 2026 Earnings** - Result: Shareholder yield topped 9% amid gold rally. Market reaction: Shares surged 5.87% reflecting strong yield and gold exposure benefits. - **Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) Q4 Earnings** - Result: Minor EPS miss, stock dipped. Market reaction: Shares declined 7.02% on earnings call despite minor miss. - **Adeia (ADEA) Q4 Earnings** - Result: Positive earnings call transcript. Market reaction: Shares rose 4.05% on upbeat results. - **Myriad Genetics (MYGN) Q4 Earnings** - Result: Strong earnings transcript. Market reaction: Shares jumped 26.57%, indicating strong investor confidence. - **Tarsus (TARS) Q4 Earnings** - Result: Losses narrowed, revenue surged. Market reaction: Shares soared 14.10% on improved financials. - **Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) Q4 Earnings** - Result: Strong execution amid transition. Market reaction: Shares gained 8.26%. - **PayPal (PYPL) Stock** - Result: Growth story challenged; downgrade noted. Market reaction: Despite downgrade, shares rallied 6.12% on takeover buzz and CEO change. - **IBM** - Result: Stock plunged 12.33% due to new Anthropic AI tool threat and AI jitters spreading on Wall Street. - **JPMorgan (JPM)** - Result: CFO comments indicated strong business pipelines and expected retail deposit growth resuming in 2026; net interest income outlook lifted. Market reaction: Shares declined 4.15% amid credit fears and broad financial sell-off. - **Nvidia (NVDA)** - Result: Positive AI leadership and earnings preview ahead. Market reaction: Shares rose 1.11%, supported by AI optimism despite broader market weakness. - **Amazon (AMZN)** - Result: Shares slipped 2.15% amid $12 billion Louisiana AI data center investment announcement. Market reaction: Slight pullback amid tech sector weakness. - **Booking Holdings (BKNG)** - Result: Shares dropped 4.35% despite Morgan Stanley upgrade on AI outlook. - **Snowflake (SNOW)** - Result: Shares fell 8.41% due to elevated valuation concerns and software sell-off. - **CrowdStrike (CRWD)** - Result: Shares plunged 10.16% amid AI disruption fears. - **Oracle (ORCL)** - Result: Shares declined 5.46% on earnings miss and tariff concerns. - **Meta Platforms (META)** - Result: Shares down 2.60% amid AI-related market jitters. - **Microsoft (MSFT)** - Result: Shares fell 2.98% amid software sector weakness. - **Visa (V)** - Result: Shares dropped 4.27% on tariff uncertainty and sector sell-off. - **Walmart (WMT)** - Result: Shares gained 2.55% after strong unit share gains and tariff relief from Supreme Court ruling. - **Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)** - Result: Shares rose 3.76% on strong U.S. sales growth and positive earnings call. ## Surprise News Today Unexpected developments that moved markets: - **IBM** - Anthropic’s new AI programming language tool triggered an 11% plunge in IBM shares, reflecting growing market fears about AI disruption in legacy tech companies. - **Blue Owl (BLO)** - Anxiety over private credit quality spread, with Blue Owl seen as a canary in the coal mine for the $1.8 trillion private credit market, contributing to financial sector weakness. - **PayPal (PYPL)** - Despite a downgrade citing a challenged growth story, shares jumped over 6% on takeover interest rumors and sudden CEO change, surprising many investors. - **Trump Tariffs** - The U.S. Supreme Court struck down parts of Trump-era tariffs, sparking renewed uncertainty and volatility in markets, particularly impacting industrials and tech sectors. - **Uber (UBER)** - Announced acquisition of parking app SpotHero, aiming to expand its super app strategy, but shares fell 4.08% amid broader tech sell-off. - **Gold (GLD)** - Gold prices surged 2.7% to $481.28 on tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions with Iran, benefiting gold miners and related ETFs. - **Crypto Market** - Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) dropped sharply amid AI fears and tariff jitters, with Bitcoin falling below $65,000 briefly. ## After-Hours Catalysts Earnings and events happening tonight: - **Nvidia (NVDA)** - Q4 earnings report is highly anticipated with expectations of strong AI-driven growth and guidance, which could set the tone for tech sector direction. - **Microsoft (MSFT)** - Investors await Q4 results for insights on AI investments and enterprise software demand amid recent sector weakness. - **Snowflake (SNOW)** - Earnings report expected to clarify valuation concerns and growth outlook amid recent sell-off. - **PayPal (PYPL)** - Watch for any updates on takeover interest and strategic direction following CEO change. - **Allison Transmission (ALSN)** - Additional details on FY2026 guidance and strategic initiatives expected in earnings call. - **Forward Air (FWRD)** - Further commentary on freight recession and recovery prospects anticipated. ## Tomorrow's Calendar Key events scheduled for tomorrow: - **Consumer Confidence Report** - Time: Not specified - Watch for: Impact on consumer spending outlook amid tariff and inflation concerns. - **Nike (NKE) Earnings** - Time: Not specified - Watch for: Sales and margin trends amid retail sector volatility and tariff relief. - **Home Depot (HD) Earnings** - Time: Not specified - Watch for: Home improvement demand and margin outlook in a mixed economic environment. - **Target (TGT) Earnings** - Time: Not specified - Watch for: Retail sales performance and tariff impact updates. ## This Week Ahead Other catalysts coming this week (only if dates mentioned): - None with specific dates mentioned. ## Highest Conviction Setup Based on today's action and upcoming catalysts: - Stock: **$NVDA** - Catalyst: Q4 earnings report and AI leadership positioning. - Thesis: Nvidia remains the AI sector bellwether with strong demand for AI chips and infrastructure. Despite recent market volatility and sector sell-offs, Nvidia’s earnings and guidance could drive a renewed tech rally, especially if it confirms robust AI growth and pricing power. The stock’s modest gain today amid broad weakness indicates underlying strength and investor confidence ahead of earnings.