Daily Brief - February 25, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Pre-Market Overview U.S. equity futures are signaling a positive start to the session, with major indexes showing gains overnight. The S&P 500 futures are up, reflecting a continuation of the strong rally seen in the previous session where the S&P 500 rose 1.09% to $689.85. The Nasdaq 100 futures are also higher, building on a 1.58% gain to $610.90, supported by optimism around AI and technology stocks. The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 futures are similarly poised for gains, indicating broad market strength. Overnight, Asian markets showed resilience with Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing up 2.22%, while South Korea’s market hit record highs, buoyed by strong technology sector performance and easing AI disruption fears. European stocks are also trading higher, led by robust earnings from HSBC and other financials, which helped lift the FTSE 100 to record levels. Market sentiment is constructive as investors digest easing geopolitical tensions, including positive developments in U.S.-Iran talks, and await key earnings reports from major tech companies like Nvidia. The overall tone is upbeat, driven by strong earnings beats, AI enthusiasm, and easing tariff concerns. However, caution remains around some pockets of weakness in sectors like healthcare and energy, as well as mixed guidance from certain retailers and industrials. Traders should watch for volatility around Nvidia’s earnings and geopolitical developments that could sway risk appetite. ## Top Stories Moving Markets - **Nvidia Earnings Anticipation** Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is the focal point for the market today. The company’s AI-driven growth story has fueled a rally in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.58% and XLK technology ETF gaining 1.99%. Investors will scrutinize Nvidia’s guidance and sales figures for signs of sustained AI demand. Stocks like **$NVDA**, **$AMD**, and **$MSFT** are expected to be highly sensitive to the report. A strong beat could extend the tech rally, while any disappointment may trigger a pullback. - **Warner Bros. Discovery M&A Developments** Netflix shares (**$NFLX**) rose 3.99% amid intensifying bid battles for Warner Bros. Discovery (**$WBD**). The ongoing M&A saga is creating volatility in media and entertainment stocks. Investors will watch for updates on potential deal terms and competing offers, which could impact valuations and sector sentiment today. - **First Solar and Lowe’s Guidance Misses** First Solar (**$FSLR**) plunged 16.46% after lowering its 2026 revenue outlook, signaling challenges in the solar industry. Lowe’s (**$LOW**) also fell 2.02% despite beating earnings, due to cautious margin guidance amid a sluggish housing market. These developments weigh on the energy and consumer discretionary sectors, tempering the broader market optimism. - **HSBC Earnings Beat and Financial Sector Strength** HSBC reported earnings that beat expectations, lifting its stock and boosting European financials. The U.S. financial sector ETF (**XLF**) gained 0.82%, supported by strong results from banks like JPMorgan (**$JPM**) and Goldman Sachs (**$GS**). Financials are positioned for modest gains today as investors digest these results and assess credit conditions. - **U.S.-Iran Negotiations and Tariff News** Iran’s negotiating team heads to Geneva with a “good outlook” for talks with the U.S., easing some geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to raise tariffs to 15% where appropriate, adding a layer of uncertainty for trade-sensitive sectors. These developments could influence energy prices and industrial stocks, with oil prices slightly down overnight. ## Stocks to Watch Today - **$NVDA** – Nvidia earnings report due; key AI growth driver with potential to move the entire tech sector. - **$NFLX** – Netflix shares up on Warner Bros. Discovery M&A developments; deal updates could drive volatility. - **$FSLR** – First Solar shares down sharply after lowering 2026 revenue outlook; watch for sector impact. - **$LOW** – Lowe’s earnings beat but cautious margin guidance weighs on shares; housing market concerns persist. - **$HSBC** – Earnings beat lifts stock and European financials; watch for spillover effects in U.S. banks. - **$ADBE** – Adobe shares up 3.3% on strong earnings; AI-related growth story remains compelling. - **$PYPL** – PayPal jumps 7.54% following takeover talks with Stripe; M&A speculation driving momentum. - **$IBM** – Up 4.37% despite AI disruption concerns; UBS upgrades stock on balanced risk-reward outlook. - **$CAVA** – Cava Group reports double-digit revenue growth; shares surged 10.34% on strong Q4 results. - **$CAR** – Avis Budget shares up 9.82% after large insider buying and positive outlook. - **$TMDX** – TransMedics jumps 7.32% on strong Q4 earnings and positive guidance. - **$ZETA** – Zeta Global surges 14.95% after beating earnings and revenue estimates. ## Sector Setup - **Technology:** Positioned for gains with XLK up 1.99%, driven by AI enthusiasm and strong earnings from Adobe, IBM, and anticipation for Nvidia. Investors favor AI-related software and semiconductor stocks. - **Financials:** Modest upside expected with XLF up 0.82%, supported by strong earnings from HSBC, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs. Credit conditions and tariff impacts remain watch points. - **Healthcare:** Slightly negative with XLV down 0.40%, pressured by mixed earnings and cautious outlooks from companies like Abbott Laboratories (**$ABT**) and Moderna. Watch for biotech and pharma earnings. - **Energy:** Flat to slightly lower with XLE up just 0.11%, impacted by tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions. First Solar’s revenue warning weighs on renewable energy sentiment. ## Economic Calendar & Fed No major economic releases or Federal Reserve events are scheduled for today. Market focus remains on corporate earnings and geopolitical developments. ## Crypto & Commodities - Bitcoin rebounded 3.58% to $66,356.17, recovering from recent lows amid easing risk sentiment and strong crypto earnings from Circle Internet Group (**$CRCL**). - Ethereum surged 6.13% to $1,965.33, reflecting broader altcoin strength. - Gold fell 0.98% to $476.57, pressured by a weaker haven demand as risk appetite improves. - Oil prices declined 0.77% to $80.28, weighed down by tariff concerns and ongoing U.S.-Iran talks. ## Trading Game Plan - Monitor Nvidia earnings closely; a beat could extend the tech rally, while any miss may trigger sector rotation. - Favor technology and financial sectors given strong earnings and AI tailwinds; be cautious on energy and healthcare. - Watch M&A developments in media with Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery for potential volatility. - Keep an eye on tariff news and U.S.-Iran negotiations as geopolitical risks could impact commodities and industrials. - Crypto remains a high-beta play; Bitcoin and Ethereum strength may support related stocks like Coinbase and Circle. - Manage risk around stocks with weak guidance or margin pressure, including First Solar and Lowe’s.