Catalyst Calendar - February 25, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Major Catalysts Mentioned **Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)** - Date: TBD - Why it matters: Ongoing M&A developments and bidding battles involving Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix could significantly impact stock valuations and market sentiment in the media sector. - Stocks affected: **$WBD**, **$NFLX** **Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings** - Date: February 25, 2026 (implied from context) - Why it matters: Nvidia’s earnings report is highly anticipated as a key indicator for AI-related market momentum. The company’s performance could influence the broader technology sector and AI investment themes. - Stocks affected: **$NVDA**, broader tech sector including **$MSFT**, **$AMD** **First Solar (FSLR) Q4 2025 Earnings and Outlook** - Date: Q4 2025 earnings already reported; ongoing developments in 2026 guidance - Why it matters: First Solar’s weaker revenue outlook and softer 2026 guidance have led to price target cuts and rating downgrades, impacting renewable energy sector sentiment. - Stocks affected: **$FSLR** **US-Iran Talks and Tariff Developments** - Date: US-Iran talks in Geneva this week (exact date TBD); US tariff increase date TBD - Why it matters: Geopolitical developments with Iran and US tariff policy changes could affect energy markets and trade-sensitive sectors. - Stocks affected: Energy stocks such as **$FANG**, **$OKE**, and companies exposed to trade tariffs. **MercadoLibre (MELI) Q4 2025 Earnings and Price Target Adjustments** - Date: Q4 2025 earnings reported; price target changes by Cantor Fitzgerald and Wedbush (date TBD) - Why it matters: MercadoLibre’s mixed earnings and margin concerns have led to lowered price targets, which may influence investor sentiment in Latin American e-commerce and fintech. - Stocks affected: **$MELI** **Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Q4 Earnings Beat** - Date: Q4 2025 earnings reported; shares surged post-earnings - Why it matters: Strong profit and revenue growth in the stablecoin and crypto payments space highlight potential growth in digital finance. - Stocks affected: **$CRCL** ## Earnings on Deck - **$NVDA** - Earnings on or around February 25, 2026 - Key watch: AI revenue growth and guidance - **$WBD** - Earnings date TBD - Key watch: M&A developments and ad revenue trends - **$MELI** - Q4 2025 earnings reported - Key watch: Margins and revenue growth outlook - **$FSLR** - Q4 2025 earnings reported - Key watch: 2026 revenue guidance and margin outlook - **$CRCL** - Q4 2025 earnings reported - Key watch: Profit and revenue growth in stablecoin business - **$TJX** - FY2027 guidance issued - Key watch: GAAP EPS outlook vs estimates ## Economic Events - No specific dated economic events mentioned in the headlines. ## Regulatory & Legal - No explicit regulatory or legal event dates mentioned, though ongoing US-Iran talks and tariff changes imply potential policy shifts. ## What's NOT Dated But Worth Tracking - AI disruption risk and opportunity in US equities, particularly in software and semiconductor sectors. Watch for evolving analyst views and stock price reactions in companies like **$IBM**, **$MSFT**, **$ADBE**, and **$PLTR**. - Ongoing tariff tensions and trade policy impacts, especially related to US-China and US-Iran relations. - M&A activity in media and technology sectors, especially the Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix bidding saga. - Market reaction to AI earnings momentum, including companies like Nvidia, Salesforce, and emerging AI infrastructure firms. - Dividend and buyback programs announced by companies such as Munich Re, Hiscox, and Thomson Reuters. ## Highest Conviction Catalyst - What: Nvidia’s Q4 2025 earnings report and fiscal 2027 outlook - When: February 25, 2026 (implied) - Why it matters: Nvidia’s earnings are a critical barometer for the AI investment theme dominating the market. Strong results and positive guidance could fuel further gains in AI-related stocks and broader indices. Conversely, any disappointment might trigger a significant market correction given the current AI enthusiasm. - Trade idea: Consider positioning ahead of earnings with options strategies to capitalize on potential volatility or selectively accumulate shares in Nvidia and related AI beneficiaries such as **$MSFT**, **$AMD**, and **$ADBE**. --- This briefing highlights the key upcoming events explicitly mentioned in the headlines, focusing on earnings, geopolitical developments, and sector-specific catalysts with clear dates or imminent timing.