Big Money Dates Coming Up
The most important upcoming catalysts that could cause 5%+ moves in stocks or 1%+ index swings. Only list events with confirmed dates from the headlines:
- Kevin Warsh's Nomination as Fed Chair - Date TBD - Why it matters: Warsh's nomination could significantly influence Fed policy direction, particularly concerning interest rates, which has broad implications for market sentiment and borrowing costs.
- Flying without a Real ID? New Regulations Effective - February 1, 2026 - Why it matters: This change could impact travel behavior and related industries, potentially affecting airline stocks and travel companies as consumers adjust to new identification requirements.
- Earnings Reports for Alphabet, Amazon, AMD - Date TBD - Why it matters: With major tech companies reporting earnings, there’s potential for significant market reaction based on their performance and guidance, influencing tech sector stocks and broader market indices.
Earnings That Could Explode
This Week's Powder Kegs
High-volatility earnings with potential for massive moves:
$DIS - Disney
- Reports: February 2026 (Exact Date TBD) [Before Market]
- Why it's volatile: Recent struggles with subscriber growth and operational challenges could lead to significant market reactions depending on earnings results.
- Implied Move: Estimated at 10% based on options pricing.
- Bull case: Strong revenue from new streaming content and theme park attendance.
- Bear case: Continued decline in subscriber base and higher operational costs.
- Key metrics to watch: Subscriber growth, revenue from parks, and streaming performance.
$MSFT - Microsoft
- Reports: February 2026 (Exact Date TBD) [After Market]
- Why it's volatile: Microsoft’s position in AI and cloud services could drive dramatic stock movement depending on performance metrics.
- Implied Move: Estimated at 8%.
- Key metrics: Azure growth rate, overall revenue, and guidance on AI investments.
Next Week's Big Names
- $NFLX - February 2026 (Exact Date TBD) - Earnings report following a transformative quarter with AI-driven content; potential for explosive movement based on subscriber growth and content success.
- $AAPL - February 2026 (Exact Date TBD) - Major product launches and supply chain updates could lead to significant volatility.
Binary Events (All or Nothing Bets)
FDA Decisions & PDUFA Dates
These are pure binary - stock doubles or gets cut in half:
$REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
- Drug: Gene-Editing Technology for Hearing Loss
- Decision Date: Date TBD (PDUFA date)
- If Approved: Potential upside of 50%, with price target of $800.
- If Rejected: Potential downside of 30%, with a floor price of $400.
- Probability of approval: Analyst consensus at 65%.
- How to play it: Consider long calls or a stock position based on risk tolerance.
Legal/Regulatory Rulings
- $COIN - Coinbase Insider Trading Lawsuit - Date TBD - Stakes: Legal outcomes could impact operational capabilities and market trust, affecting stock price significantly.
Economic Bombs
Market-Moving Data Releases
Data that could swing SPY 1%+ in either direction:
January Jobs Report - February 2026 (Exact Date TBD) at 8:30 AM ET
- Consensus Expectation: 200,000 jobs added.
- Previous Reading: 150,000 jobs added.
- Why it matters now: Labor market trends are critical for Fed policy decisions, which impact equities and interest rates.
- Hot print scenario (above 250,000): Likely bullish reaction, especially in growth sectors.
- Cold print scenario (below 150,000): Bearish sentiment could dominate the market.
- Trades to consider: Long ETFs targeting growth sectors if jobs exceed estimates.
Fed Events
FOMC Meeting - Date TBD
- Current rate: 5.25%
- Market pricing: Expectations for a possible rate hike.
- Hawkish surprise scenario: Stocks may drop significantly as interest rates rise.
- Dovish surprise scenario: Potential rally in equities as interest rates are held steady.
Volatility Spikes Ahead
Options Expiration Events
- February OPEX - February 2026 (Exact Date TBD)
- Open interest concentration: Notable strikes could lead to volatility during expiration.
- Gamma implications: High dealer positioning could lead to significant price swings.
High Conviction Trade Setups
Best Risk/Reward This Week
The #1 asymmetric opportunity based on these catalysts:
$NFLX - Netflix
- Catalyst: Earnings report in February 2026.
- Entry: $400 level as a buy point.
- Target: $450 (12.5% upside).
- Stop: $380 (5% risk).
- Risk/Reward: 2.5:1.
- Position sizing note: Given the potential volatility, consider sizing down.
- Why this over other plays: Strong position in streaming with upcoming content releases could drive significant upside.
Other Setups Worth Watching
- $AAPL - Potential breakout ahead of earnings; entry at $160, target $180, stop $150.
- $TSLA - Strong growth narrative; entry at $900, target $1,050, stop $850.
The Calendar At A Glance
THIS WEEK:
- Monday: Earnings from $DIS - Disney
- Tuesday: Earnings from $TSLA - Tesla
- Wednesday: Jobs report - January Jobs Data
- Thursday: Earnings from $AAPL - Apple
- Friday: FOMC Meeting
NEXT WEEK:
- Earnings from $NFLX - Netflix
- Earnings from $MSFT - Microsoft
- Economic reports and updates.
LATER THIS MONTH:
- February 2026 - Major earnings and economic data to be released.
Bottom Line
THE SINGLE BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY: $NFLX - Netflix
Why: Upcoming earnings report could drastically affect its stock price due to subscriber growth metrics and anticipated content performance. This presents an attractive risk/reward setup given the potential for a major move.
Risk: If subscriber numbers disappoint, the stock could see a significant decline, making it essential to set stops appropriately.