Macro View - February 25, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Macro Summary U.S. equity markets closed higher Wednesday, led by a strong rally in technology shares, particularly in semiconductor and software sectors. The S&P 500 gained 0.66%, the Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 1.12% advance, while the Dow Jones rose a more modest 0.40%. This broad-based strength was driven by renewed investor optimism around artificial intelligence (AI) innovation and earnings beats from key tech companies, notably Nvidia, which reported record revenue and robust guidance. The market’s positive tone reflected a growing belief that AI-related investments will continue to fuel growth despite lingering concerns about valuation and potential disruption to traditional software firms. Despite the upbeat equity performance, pockets of volatility persisted, especially in more cyclical and consumer discretionary sectors, which faced mixed earnings results and cautious guidance. The market also digested geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade uncertainties, with oil prices retreating modestly amid anticipation of further U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Overall, the macro environment remains characterized by a delicate balance between accelerating technological innovation, cautious corporate outlooks, and geopolitical risk, which together shaped today’s trading dynamics. ## Economic Data Reaction No major economic data releases were reported today, leaving earnings and corporate guidance as the primary market drivers. ## Fed & Central Banks Fed commentary was limited today, with no new policy announcements or speeches. Market participants remain focused on the Fed’s upcoming communications for clues on the path of interest rates amid mixed signals on inflation and growth. The absence of fresh central bank news allowed earnings and sector-specific developments to take center stage. ## Rates & Bonds - 20+ Year Treasury (TLT): $89.87, down 0.03% - 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF): $97.25, down 0.17% - 1-3 Year Treasury (SHY): $83.05, down 0.01% Treasury prices edged lower, reflecting a slight uptick in yields amid improved risk appetite. The modest decline in long-dated Treasuries suggests investors are pricing in sustained economic growth and inflation risks, though the yield curve remains relatively flat, indicating ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. ## Currency & Dollar The U.S. dollar index (UUP) slipped slightly by 0.11% to $27.08, reflecting mild dollar weakness. This softer dollar environment supported gains in technology and commodity-linked equities, as well as non-U.S. assets. The dollar’s retreat was influenced by easing concerns over aggressive Fed tightening and geopolitical developments, which encouraged some risk-on positioning in global markets. ## Commodities Wrap - Oil (USO): $79.93, down 1.03% - Gold (GLD): $474.00, down 0.13% - Silver (SLV): $79.62, up 0.68% - Natural Gas (UNG): $11.60, up 1.22% Oil prices declined modestly as markets awaited further developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could impact Middle East supply dynamics. Gold edged lower on a firmer risk appetite and a weaker haven bid, while silver and natural gas posted gains, supported by industrial demand and seasonal factors. The commodity complex showed mixed signals, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty alongside improving economic sentiment. ## Global Markets Close - Europe: European equities closed higher, with the STOXX 600 hitting an all-time high, buoyed by strong earnings from HSBC and easing AI disruption fears. The region’s markets benefited from a robust earnings season and optimism around AI-driven growth. - Asia setup for tonight: Asia-Pacific shares are poised to climb, supported by the positive momentum from Nvidia’s earnings and Oracle’s strong performance in the U.S. markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 2.22%, while South Korea’s market reached record highs, reflecting optimism around memory chip demand and AI infrastructure investments. ## Tomorrow's Macro Focus Key macro catalysts to watch include upcoming earnings reports from major financial institutions and technology firms, which will provide further insight into corporate health amid evolving AI dynamics. Additionally, markets will monitor geopolitical developments related to U.S.-Iran talks and any fresh central bank commentary that could influence interest rate expectations. Investors will also be attentive to economic data releases on inflation and consumer spending that may shape the Fed’s policy outlook.