Catalyst Calendar - February 25, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Today's Catalyst Results How did scheduled events play out? - **NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 FY26 Earnings** - Result: Reported record $68B revenue driven by strong Blackwell AI chip demand. CEO Jensen Huang stated markets misunderstood AI threat to software companies, emphasizing AI boom acceleration. EPS beat expectations, with upbeat quarterly sales forecast. Market reaction: NVDA shares rose 1.63% during the day and surged further in after-hours trading. - **Snowflake (SNOW) Q4 FY26 Earnings** - Result: Beat EPS ($0.34 vs. $0.27 estimate) and sales ($1.284B vs. $1.255B estimate) with 30% revenue growth and margin expansion guidance. However, the stock dipped on mixed outlook and cautious guidance. Market reaction: SNOW shares showed initial pop then declined, closing slightly up 3.08% intraday but with volatility. - **Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by strong stablecoin circulation. Market reaction: CRCL shares jumped 15% in pre-market and closed down 1.48% intraday. - **Cava Group (CAVA) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Reported double-digit revenue growth and topped $1 billion in yearly revenue for the first time. Market reaction: Shares surged 26.36% intraday. - **Applied Materials (AMAT) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Strong earnings beat with 3.79% stock gain, driven by AI-related chip demand. Market reaction: AMAT shares rallied significantly. - **Axon Enterprise (AXON) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: AI-driven bookings growth led to 17.56% share price jump. Market reaction: Strong positive market response. - **Jaz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Shares hit 12.18% gain, reaching 52-week highs on strong results. Market reaction: Positive investor sentiment. - **Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call** - Result: Strong revenue growth and profit beat. Market reaction: Shares surged pre-market. - **Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Reported 4.98% share price increase on strong quarter. Market reaction: Positive. - **IBM (IBM) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Shares gained 3.69% after earnings beat but with AI disruption concerns. Market reaction: Mixed but overall positive. - **Gold Royalty Corp. (GOLD)** - Result: Noted for asymmetric cash flow inflection and structural rerating potential. Market reaction: Data not available. - **Walmart (WMT)** - Result: Solid earnings but cautious guidance led to 0.59% share decline; Walton family trust sold $159.8M in stock. Market reaction: Slight negative pressure. - **Home Depot (HD) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Weaker profit but lifted dividend; shares fell 2.32%. Market reaction: Negative. - **First Solar (FSLR) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: Shares plunged 13.65% on weak revenue outlook and tariff concerns. Market reaction: Negative. - **Lowe's (LOW) Q4 2026 Earnings** - Result: Earnings beat but muted annual sales and profit guidance led to 5.59% share drop. Market reaction: Negative. - **Salesforce (CRM) Q4 2026 Earnings** - Result: Beat earnings but mixed guidance and AI gloom caused shares to fall 1.13%. Market reaction: Negative. - **The Trade Desk (TTD) Q4 2025 Earnings** - Result: 73% EPS beat but stock declined 15.32%, reflecting market skepticism. Market reaction: Negative. - **PayPal (PYPL)** - Result: Shares up 0.60% after a brutal reset hides strong cash flow. Market reaction: Slight positive. - **Netflix (NFLX)** - Result: Shares jumped 6.64% after Warner Bros. bid fueled investor optimism. Market reaction: Positive. - **Meta Platforms (META)** - Result: Shares rose 1.40% on solid earnings and AI growth outlook. Market reaction: Positive. - **Microsoft (MSFT)** - Result: Shares gained 2.28% amid AI optimism and earnings beat. Market reaction: Positive. - **Amazon (AMZN)** - Result: Modest 0.35% gain on solid earnings. Market reaction: Neutral to positive. - **JPMorgan (JPM)** - Result: Shares rose 2.02% on strong earnings and investment banking resilience. Market reaction: Positive. - **Citigroup (C)** - Result: Shares surged 4.36% on earnings beat and sale of Russian operations. Market reaction: Positive. - **Bank of America (BAC)** - Result: Shares gained 2.32% on earnings beat. Market reaction: Positive. - **Goldman Sachs (GS)** - Result: Shares rose 1.78% on earnings beat. Market reaction: Positive. - **Morgan Stanley (MS)** - Result: Shares up 2.93% on earnings beat and AI optimism. Market reaction: Positive. - **Broadcom (AVGO)** - Result: Shares up 1.69% on AI tailwinds and new product launches. Market reaction: Positive. - **Qualcomm (QCOM)** - Result: Shares up 0.57% on deal with Tata Electronics and solid earnings. Market reaction: Positive. - **Intel (INTC)** - Result: Shares up 0.76% on earnings beat. Market reaction: Positive. - **Texas Instruments (TXN)** - Result: Shares up 0.53% despite cautious outlook. Market reaction: Neutral to positive. - **Micron Technology (MU)** - Result: Shares up 0.75% on earnings beat. Market reaction: Positive. - **Nvidia (NVDA)** - Result: After-hours surge following earnings beat. Market reaction: Strong positive. - **Circle Internet Group (CRCL)** - Result: Shares surged after strong earnings and stablecoin growth. Market reaction: Positive. ## Surprise News Today Unexpected developments that moved markets: - **ACHC** - Shares surged 21.54% on strong Q4 earnings and margin recovery outlook. - **AXON** - Shares jumped 17.56% as AI demand boosts bookings and software tools. - **BMNR** - Shares soared 9.31% on earnings beat and strong position in BDC space. - **COIN** - Shares rallied 11.79% on crypto market rebound and strong earnings. - **CRCL** - Unexpected strong earnings and stablecoin circulation drove shares up sharply. - **ECG** - Shares surged 24.84% on record growth and strategic initiatives. - **EVH** - Shares jumped 22.66% on earnings beat and margin improvements. - **JAZZ** - Shares rose 12.18% on strong earnings and growth outlook. - **NAKA** - Shares jumped 14.83% on acquisition and bitcoin ecosystem expansion. - **REZI** - Shares surged 14.39% on strong leasing and valuation re-rating. - **ROOT** - Shares up 12.42% on earnings beat and growth outlook. - **SABR** - Shares jumped 12.89% on strong earnings. - **SLDE** - Shares rallied 13.52% on earnings beat and margin improvement. - **RRGB** - Shares surged 13.44% on earnings beat and turnaround signs. - **UTHR** - Shares soared 13.03% on earnings beat and strong pipeline. - **UIS** - Shares jumped 15.49% on earnings beat and margin gains. - **NVTS** - Shares surged 15.98% on strong earnings and AI semiconductor demand. - **CCC** - Shares surged 24.11% on earnings beat and growth outlook. - **CAVA** - Shares surged 26.36% on strong revenue growth and new product launch. - **ALLT** - Shares plunged 29.56% on earnings miss and market contraction. - **ASPN** - Shares dropped 27.81% on earnings miss and margin pressure. - **ODD** - Shares collapsed 49.86% on earnings miss and valuation concerns. - **AI** - Shares plunged 21.44% on earnings miss and profitability challenges. - **MGPI** - Shares dropped 20.50% on earnings miss and margin pressure. - **IBRX** - Shares plunged 16.75% on earnings miss despite revenue surge. - **VRRM** - Shares dropped 15.66% on earnings miss. - **DEO** - Shares fell 15.02% on unconvincing half-year results and dividend cut risk. - **LXFR** - Shares dropped 16.71% on earnings miss. - **HLN** - Shares fell 5.78% on earnings miss and cautious guidance. - **HNI** - Shares dropped 5.11% on earnings miss and margin pressure. - **ALKS** - Shares dropped 5.21% on earnings miss and margin pressure. - **CDNA** - Shares dropped 6.70% on earnings miss. - **CLNE** - Shares fell 7.87% on earnings miss and margin pressure. - **TALO** - Shares dropped 13.71% on earnings miss. - **FSLR** - Shares plunged 13.65% on weak outlook and tariff concerns. ## After-Hours Catalysts Earnings and events happening tonight: - **NVIDIA (NVDA)** - Watch for detailed commentary on AI chip demand and fiscal 2027 outlook. - **Snowflake (SNOW)** - Monitor management’s guidance on AI contribution and margin expansion. - **Salesforce (CRM)** - Watch for updates on AI strategy and revenue outlook amid mixed guidance. - **Circle Internet Group (CRCL)** - Follow any additional commentary on stablecoin growth and regulatory environment. - **Applied Materials (AMAT)** - Look for updates on AI infrastructure demand and capex trends. - **Axon Enterprise (AXON)** - Watch for further details on AI-driven bookings and software expansion. - **Jaz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)** - Monitor pipeline updates and growth outlook. - **Cava Group (CAVA)** - Watch for product launch details and 2026 growth targets. - **IBM (IBM)** - Look for insights on AI disruption risk and strategic initiatives. - **Home Depot (HD)** - Monitor margin outlook and dividend plans. - **First Solar (FSLR)** - Watch for tariff impact and demand outlook. - **Lowe's (LOW)** - Follow guidance on sales and profit outlook. - **The Trade Desk (TTD)** - Watch for commentary on advertising market and AI impact. - **PayPal (PYPL)** - Monitor strategic reset and cash flow outlook. - **Netflix (NFLX)** - Watch for updates on Warner Bros. deal and ad revenue growth. - **Meta Platforms (META)** - Follow AI growth initiatives and revenue guidance. - **Microsoft (MSFT)** - Monitor AI product demand and cloud growth. - **Amazon (AMZN)** - Watch for AWS growth and retail trends. - **JPMorgan (JPM)** - Follow investment banking and credit outlook. - **Citigroup (C)** - Monitor restructuring and international operations. - **Bank of America (BAC)** - Watch for credit trends and capital deployment. - **Goldman Sachs (GS)** - Follow trading and advisory business. - **Morgan Stanley (MS)** - Monitor wealth management and AI impact. - **Broadcom (AVGO)** - Watch for AI product launches and guidance. - **Qualcomm (QCOM)** - Follow automotive and 5G module sales. - **Intel (INTC)** - Monitor AI chip demand and manufacturing updates. - **Texas Instruments (TXN)** - Watch for margin outlook and capex plans. - **Micron Technology (MU)** - Follow memory demand and pricing trends. ## Tomorrow's Calendar Key events scheduled for tomorrow: - **Nvidia Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Detailed AI chip demand commentary and fiscal 2027 guidance. - **Snowflake Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI revenue contribution and margin guidance. - **Salesforce Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI strategy and revenue outlook. - **Circle Internet Group Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Stablecoin growth and regulatory updates. - **Applied Materials Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI infrastructure demand. - **Axon Enterprise Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI-driven bookings. - **Jaz Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Pipeline and growth outlook. - **Cava Group Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Product launches and 2026 targets. - **IBM Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI disruption risk. - **Home Depot Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Margin and dividend outlook. - **First Solar Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Tariff impact. - **Lowe's Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Sales and profit guidance. - **The Trade Desk Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Advertising market trends. - **PayPal Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Strategic reset. - **Netflix Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Warner Bros. deal updates. - **Meta Platforms Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI initiatives. - **Microsoft Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Cloud and AI growth. - **Amazon Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AWS and retail trends. - **JPMorgan Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Banking outlook. - **Citigroup Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Restructuring. - **Bank of America Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Credit trends. - **Goldman Sachs Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Trading business. - **Morgan Stanley Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Wealth management. - **Broadcom Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: AI product updates. - **Qualcomm Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Automotive sales. - **Intel Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Manufacturing updates. - **Texas Instruments Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Capex plans. - **Micron Technology Earnings Call** - Time: After market close - Watch for: Memory pricing. ## This Week Ahead Other catalysts coming this week (only if dates mentioned): - No additional confirmed dates beyond today and tomorrow. ## Highest Conviction Setup Based on today's action and upcoming catalysts: - Stock: **$NVDA** - Catalyst: Record Q4 earnings fueled by AI chip demand and strong fiscal 2027 outlook. - Thesis: Nvidia continues to lead the AI semiconductor boom with robust revenue growth and margin expansion, supported by new AI system launches and strong demand across data centers and enterprise. The market’s positive reaction and after-hours surge indicate strong investor confidence in Nvidia’s dominant position in AI infrastructure. Upcoming earnings call will provide further clarity on growth drivers and risks, making it a high-conviction play in the current AI-driven market environment.