Catalyst Calendar - February 28, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Major Catalysts Mentioned **U.S.-Iran Conflict and Related Geopolitical Events** - Date: Ongoing, with specific mentions of strikes and retaliations occurring around late February 2026 - Why it matters: The escalating conflict involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliatory missile launches, is creating significant market uncertainty, particularly impacting energy prices, defense stocks, and broader geopolitical risk sentiment. This tension is driving volatility in oil prices and defense sector equities, while also raising concerns about global economic stability. - Stocks affected: **$APA**, **$KTOS**, **$BMNR**, **$CORZ**, **$MGM**, **$NHI** **CME Group (CME) Launching 24/7 Regulated Cryptocurrency Trading** - Date: TBD (announcement made) - Why it matters: CME Group’s move to offer round-the-clock regulated crypto trading access represents a major expansion in the institutional cryptocurrency market infrastructure, potentially increasing trading volumes and attracting new participants. This could boost CME’s revenue and market share in derivatives trading. - Stocks affected: **$CME** **February Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview** - Date: February 28, 2026 (implied by context) - Why it matters: The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report will be crucial in assessing labor market stability amid ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants will closely watch this data for signs of economic resilience or weakness, influencing Fed policy expectations and equity market direction. - Stocks affected: Broad market impact, including **$SPY**, **$QQQ**, **$DIA** **SQM (Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile S.A. ADR) Earnings Report** - Date: February 28, 2026 (After Market Close) - Why it matters: SQM is a key player in the lithium market, which is critical for electric vehicle battery supply chains. Its earnings and guidance will provide insight into the lithium demand outlook and pricing trends, relevant for the EV and clean energy sectors. - Stocks affected: **$SQM** **Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Earnings and Leadership Transition** - Date: Recent quarter reported, no specific upcoming date mentioned - Why it matters: Berkshire Hathaway’s operating earnings fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s final quarter as CEO. The transition to Greg Abel as CEO, who recently published his first shareholder letter, marks a significant leadership change. Investors will monitor how this affects Berkshire’s strategy and performance going forward. - Stocks affected: **$BRK.B** ## Earnings on Deck - **$SQM** - Reports: 02/28/2026 (After Market Close) - Key watch: EPS and revenue relative to estimates, lithium market demand - Other companies have recent or ongoing earnings calls mentioned but no explicit upcoming dates provided. ## Economic Events - **ISM Manufacturing PMI** - 03/02/2026 at 3:00 PM - Expected impact: Key gauge of manufacturing sector health; market will watch for signs of expansion or contraction amid geopolitical risks. - **Chicago PMI** - 02/27/2026 at 2:45 PM - Actual was 57.7 vs forecast 52.8, indicating stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity. - **PPI Final Demand and Core Measures** - 02/27/2026 at 1:30 PM - Actual PPI data showed inflation pressures remain elevated, which could influence Fed policy outlook. - **Construction Spending (Nov and Dec 2025)** - 02/27/2026 - Mixed results with slight contraction in Nov and modest growth in Dec, signaling cautious construction sector activity. - **MBA 15-Year Mortgage Rates** - 03/04/2026 at 12:00 PM - Important for housing market trends and consumer spending outlook. ## Regulatory & Legal - **Anthropic AI Lab** - Labeled a supply chain risk and blacklisted by Trump administration; plans to sue the government. - Date: TBD - Why it matters: This legal challenge highlights regulatory risks in the AI sector, potentially affecting AI-related stocks and investor sentiment on technology regulation. - Stocks affected: Data not available (Anthropic is private) ## What's NOT Dated But Worth Tracking - Ongoing U.S.-Israel military operations and Iran retaliations continue to affect market sentiment and energy prices. Watch for escalation or de-escalation signals. - Nvidia’s AI chip developments and earnings call commentary suggest ongoing innovation but also market anxiety about AI’s economic impact. - Fintech sector expansion and regulatory realities discussed by Unlimit’s Yulia Shevchenko could influence fintech stocks and payment processors. - Analyst upgrades and downgrades on various stocks including Brown & Brown (**$BRO**), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (**$JAZZ**), and Autodesk indicate shifting sentiment in insurance, biotech, and software sectors. - Private equity and banking sector stress amid AI-driven economic disruption is a theme to monitor for potential market rotation. - The evolving AI landscape, including OpenAI’s Pentagon deal and Anthropic’s legal issues, may impact technology sector valuations. ## Highest Conviction Catalyst - What: Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict and Its Market Impact - When: Ongoing, with key events in late February 2026 - Why it matters: The recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian missile retaliations, are creating a significant geopolitical risk premium in markets. This is driving oil prices higher (with **$USO** up 2.73%) and boosting defense-related stocks such as **$KTOS** and **$APA**. The conflict raises concerns about supply chain disruptions, energy security, and broader economic stability, which could influence Fed policy and market risk appetite. Investors should monitor developments closely as escalation or containment will have major implications for equities, commodities, and fixed income. - Trade idea: Consider exposure to defense contractors and energy producers benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while hedging broader equity exposure due to increased volatility risk. **$APA**, **$KTOS**, and **$CME** (for crypto trading expansion) are notable names to watch. --- The market is navigating a complex environment marked by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and technological disruption. Upcoming economic data and earnings reports, especially from lithium producer **$SQM**, will provide further clarity on growth prospects. Meanwhile, the leadership transition at Berkshire Hathaway and regulatory developments in AI add layers of strategic uncertainty. Investors should remain vigilant for catalysts that could drive sector rotations or volatility spikes in the near term.