White House & Policy - March 01, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview Overnight, the administration confirmed a series of targeted military actions in the Middle East following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. These strikes, coordinated with Israeli forces, mark a significant escalation in U.S. foreign policy aimed at curbing Iran’s regional influence. The administration emphasized a calibrated approach, warning Iran against retaliatory attacks while signaling readiness to respond with unprecedented force if necessary. In addition, the White House announced a $143 million Memorandum of Understanding with Guinea to bolster health infrastructure over five years, reflecting ongoing efforts to strengthen U.S. influence in Africa through development aid. No new executive orders were issued overnight, but the administration is expected to deliver remarks later today on national security and economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Congressional activity today includes a scheduled hearing on the implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict for energy markets and national security. Lawmakers will also debate a bipartisan infrastructure bill aimed at accelerating clean energy projects, which could influence energy sector dynamics. Market sentiment is cautious heading into the open, with investors digesting the geopolitical risks from the Middle East and awaiting clarity on the administration’s next moves. The risk-off tone is evident in futures markets and sector rotations. ## Market Impact Pre-market trading reflects heightened risk aversion linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Energy futures are surging, with crude oil prices up 2.73% to $81.95 per barrel, driven by concerns over supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and potential OPEC+ production decisions. Gold is also rallying, up 1.31% to $483.75 per ounce, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Equity futures are broadly lower, with the S&P 500 futures down approximately 0.48% and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.63%, signaling a cautious open. The Dow Jones futures are weaker by 1.05%, reflecting pressure on industrial and financial stocks. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down 1.72%, indicating heightened risk aversion among smaller companies. The U.S. dollar is slightly weaker, with the UUP ETF down 0.07%, as safe-haven flows favor gold and Treasury bonds. The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 0.55%, reflecting increased demand for long-duration government debt amid uncertainty. Sector rotation is evident: energy and healthcare sectors are outperforming pre-market, while financials and technology sectors face selling pressure. The administration’s health aid agreement with Guinea supports healthcare optimism, while geopolitical tensions boost energy demand expectations. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$XOM** - Higher oil prices from Middle East tensions benefit ExxonMobil’s upstream and refining operations. **$CVX** - Chevron stands to gain from rising energy prices and potential OPEC+ supply constraints. **$LLY** - The Guinea health MOU and broader healthcare focus support Eli Lilly’s growth prospects in emerging markets. **$DOCN** - DigitalOcean benefits from increased demand for cloud infrastructure amid geopolitical uncertainty driving digital transformation. **$LMT** - Lockheed Martin’s defense contracts gain renewed focus as military spending and geopolitical risks rise. **$RTX** - Raytheon Technologies is positioned to benefit from increased defense budgets and missile system demand. ### Potential Losers **$AAPL** - Apple shares are down 3.44%, pressured by risk-off sentiment and concerns over supply chain disruptions amid U.S.-China-Taiwan tensions. **$NVDA** - Nvidia faces a 3.83% decline as tech sector weakness and AI regulatory concerns weigh on sentiment. **$JPM** - JPMorgan Chase is down 2.02%, hurt by financial sector selloff amid market volatility and uncertainty over credit conditions. **$GM** - General Motors shares fall 2.90%, reflecting concerns over consumer spending and supply chain risks. **$U** - Unity Software declines 7.35%, impacted by broad tech weakness and investor caution on discretionary tech spending. **$SCHW** - Charles Schwab is down 2.38%, pressured by financial sector volatility and risk-off flows. ## Trade & Tariff Watch No new tariffs or trade restrictions were announced overnight. However, ongoing U.S.-Taiwan trade tensions remain a background risk for technology supply chains, particularly semiconductor manufacturing. The administration’s emphasis on national security in technology exports continues to influence market perceptions of companies like **$AAPL** and **$NVDA**. No new retaliatory measures from China or other trade partners have been reported. Supply chain concerns persist but have not escalated into formal trade actions today. ## Sector Exposure - **Energy:** The sector is the clear beneficiary of geopolitical tensions, with oil prices rising sharply due to fears of supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. OPEC+ production decisions later this week will be closely watched. - **Defense:** Defense contractors such as **$LMT**, **$RTX**, and **$NOC** are gaining on prospects of increased military spending and contract awards amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions. - **Healthcare:** The administration’s $143 million health aid deal with Guinea supports healthcare stocks like **$LLY**, reinforcing the sector’s defensive qualities. - **Technology:** The tech sector is under pressure from geopolitical risks, regulatory concerns around AI, and supply chain uncertainties linked to U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. This weighs on major names including **$AAPL**, **$NVDA**, and **$U**. - **Financials:** Financial stocks are facing selling pressure amid market volatility and concerns about credit conditions, impacting banks like **$JPM** and brokerage firms like **$SCHW**. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on national security and economic resilience, which could provide market guidance on the U.S. stance toward Iran and energy policy. - Congressional hearing on the U.S.-Iran conflict’s impact on energy markets and national security, with potential for market-moving commentary. - OPEC+ meeting outcomes later this week on potential oil production increases, critical for energy sector direction. - ISM Manufacturing PMI release at 3:00 PM, with a forecast of 51.8, which could influence industrial and broader market sentiment. - ADP National Employment report due tomorrow, with expectations for 50,000 new jobs, relevant for financial markets assessing economic momentum. - Key technical levels on policy-sensitive stocks such as **$XOM** (support near $148.54), **$AAPL** (resistance near $272.95), and **$LMT** (support near $641.63). - Risk factors include escalation in Middle East conflict, potential retaliatory strikes, and further supply chain disruptions affecting global trade and technology sectors.