Daily Brief - March 02, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Market Recap The major U.S. equity indices closed mostly lower on the day amid heightened geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Iran conflict escalation. The S&P 500 edged down 0.10% to 685.30, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.07% to 606.88, reflecting cautious investor sentiment in technology and growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.19% to 488.72, pressured by defensive sectors and select large-cap industrials. In contrast, the Russell 2000 small-cap index bucked the trend, gaining 0.67% to 263.16, signaling some risk appetite in smaller, domestically focused stocks. Market breadth was mixed with volume moderate across the board—S&P 500 volume at 87.5 million shares and Nasdaq 100 at 75.4 million shares. Defensive sectors like energy outperformed sharply, driven by a surge in oil prices amid Middle East conflict, while consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors lagged. The trading session was characterized by rotation into energy and defense-related stocks as investors sought shelter from geopolitical uncertainty, while growth and consumer-oriented names saw profit-taking. ## Top Stories That Moved Markets - **Middle East Conflict and Oil Surge:** The escalation of U.S.-Iran hostilities sent oil prices soaring, with crude futures rising 5.46% to $86.43 per barrel. This geopolitical risk premium boosted energy stocks such as **$XLE** (+1.93%) and **$COP** (+4.21%). The conflict also triggered a flight to safety in gold, which climbed 1.54% to $491.22 per ounce. - **Defense Stocks Rally:** Heightened geopolitical tensions fueled buying in defense-related equities. Notably, **$PLTR** jumped 6.28%, **$NOC** gained 6.02%, and **$LHX** rose 3.82%, reflecting expectations of increased defense spending and demand for military technology. - **LendingTree (TREE) Earnings Beat and Guidance:** LendingTree reported Q4 sales of $319.7 million, beating estimates of $286.5 million, though adjusted EPS missed expectations. The company raised its full-year 2026 sales outlook to $1.275-$1.33 billion, above consensus. Shares surged 12.39% on the news, signaling investor optimism on growth prospects despite near-term earnings miss. - **Core Scientific (CORZ) Q4 Results Disappoint:** Core Scientific posted Q4 EPS of $0.42 versus a loss last year, but revenue declined year-over-year and missed estimates. Shares fell 1.59% as investors digested mixed results amid ongoing challenges in the crypto mining sector. - **ADT (ADT) Stock Plummets Despite Slight Beat:** ADT beat EPS estimates by a small margin but reported revenue slightly below expectations. The stock plunged 11.22%, reflecting concerns about margin pressures and revenue headwinds in the security services business. ## Biggest Winners - **$RLYB** +42.18% – The tobacco company rallied sharply on takeover speculation and positive investor sentiment around its strategic outlook. - **$OUST** +27.23% – Ouster soared after reporting Q4 earnings that beat expectations with revenue doubling and margin expansion, coupled with strong guidance. - **$CGEN** +27.07% – Biotechnology firm Compugen surged following a substantial earnings beat and robust revenue growth, signaling strong pipeline progress. - **$ASTH** +27.05% – Astrana Health rallied on a positive earnings surprise and strong revenue beat, driving investor enthusiasm. - **$OCUL** +22.82% – Ocular Therapeutix jumped on promising clinical data and positive commentary at a healthcare conference. - **$VG** +17.44% – Venture Global rocketed after reporting earnings beat and strong revenue, reflecting optimism in the LNG midstream sector amid supply disruptions. - **$CRCL** +15.22% – Circle Financial surged on renewed investor interest in crypto infrastructure amid market volatility. - **$ASTS** +13.42% – AST SpaceMobile rallied on expectations of satellite ramp driving revenue growth. ## Biggest Losers - **$QURE** -33.78% – uniQure plunged despite an earnings beat due to ongoing concerns about its gene therapy pipeline and regulatory risks. - **$TPB** -20.79% – Turning Point Brands collapsed on a large earnings miss and weak guidance, sparking heavy selling pressure. - **$ADT** -11.22% – ADT’s stock dropped sharply despite a slight earnings beat, weighed down by revenue and margin concerns. - **$NCLH** -10.53% – Norwegian Cruise Line fell on weaker-than-expected profit guidance amid geopolitical travel disruptions. - **$YSG** -8.99% – Yatsen Holding declined after disappointing earnings and cautious outlook. - **$TEL** -7.89% – TE Connectivity dropped sharply following a disappointing outlook and concerns over supply chain issues. - **$CRDO** -6.16% – Credo Technology sold off on weak quarterly results and cautious guidance. - **$URGN** -5.53% – UroGen Pharma declined after missing earnings and revenue estimates. ## Sector Scorecard - **Leaders:** Energy and Defense sectors led gains, supported by surging oil prices and geopolitical risk. Energy ETF **$XLE** rose 1.93%, while defense-related stocks like **$PLTR** and **$NOC** saw strong rallies. Technology also showed resilience, with **$XLK** up 0.32%, buoyed by AI-related names. - **Laggards:** Consumer Discretionary (**$XLY** -1.23%) and Healthcare (**$XLV** -1.04%) underperformed amid risk-off sentiment and travel disruptions. Consumer Staples (**$XLP** -1.62%) also lagged, pressured by inflation concerns and cautious consumer spending outlook. - Financials (**$XLF** -0.31%) saw modest declines, reflecting mixed earnings and cautious bank sentiment amid geopolitical uncertainty. ## After-Hours Movers - **$PLUG** +9.04% AH – Plug Power rallied after Q4 earnings showed positive gross margin improvements, signaling operational progress in the hydrogen fuel cell space. - **$RAMP** +2.98% AH – LiveRamp gained post-market on strong earnings and upbeat guidance, highlighting momentum in data connectivity services. - **$SOFI** +5.46% AH – SoFi Technologies jumped following CEO insider buying and positive commentary on student loan business growth. - **$TREE** +12.39% AH – LendingTree’s after-hours surge followed its earnings beat and raised sales outlook. ## Crypto & Commodities Bitcoin surged 4.54% to $68,757.91, and Ethereum climbed 4.79% to $2,031.85, reflecting a risk-on move in crypto markets despite broader equity caution. Gold prices rose 1.54% to $491.22 per ounce, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. Oil prices jumped 5.46% to $86.43 per barrel, driven by supply concerns related to the Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. ## Tomorrow Setup Investors will closely monitor the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3:00 PM ET, where February’s reading came in at 52.4, slightly above expectations, signaling ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector. The S&P Global Services PMI final reading is also due, providing further insight into the health of the service economy. Earnings reports from key names including Archer Aviation (**$ACHR**), AES Corp (**$AES**), and AAON (**$AAON**) will be in focus, with expectations for mixed results amid sector-specific challenges. Watch for updates from Norwegian Cruise Line (**$NCLH**) and Uniti Group (**$UNIT**) following recent earnings reactions. Risk factors include ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, which continues to pressure energy prices and could weigh on global economic growth. Market participants will also be attentive to any further developments in U.S. monetary policy signals amid inflation concerns and the evolving economic data calendar. Momentum stocks to watch include defense and energy names benefiting from the conflict-driven rally, as well as software and AI-related companies showing resilience despite recent volatility. Investors should remain cautious given the mixed signals from earnings and macroeconomic indicators.