## TODAY'S GRADE: B
A mixed day with small losses in large caps but strong gains in small caps and energy, reflecting geopolitical tensions and sector rotation.
## HOW INDEXES TRADED
**SPY:** -0.11% - choppy, slight downside pressure
**QQQ:** -0.08% - choppy with mild weakness
**IWM:** +0.67% - strong upside, leadership from small caps
## BIGGEST MOVERS
### Winners
**$ASTH** +27.05% - strong earnings and growth outlook
**$OUST** +27.76% - Q4 earnings beat and strong guidance
**$CGEN** +27.07% - solid earnings report and momentum
### Losers
**$QURE** -33.78% - sharp selloff after earnings miss and guidance cut
**$ADT** -11.22% - earnings miss and revenue headwinds
**$NCLH** -10.53% - profit warning amid travel disruption from Middle East conflict
## WHAT WORKED
Patterns or setups that worked today:
- **Energy and defense sector plays** – Stocks like **$XLE** (+1.93%) and defense names such as **$NOC** (+6.67%) rallied on Middle East tensions driving oil prices higher.
- **Small-cap strength** – The Russell 2000 outperformed with a +0.67% gain, led by high-beta and growth names like **$ASTH** and **$KSPI** (+10.28%).
- **Post-earnings momentum** – Stocks with strong Q4 reports and positive guidance, such as **$OUST** and **$ASTS** (+13.39%), saw sharp rallies.
## WHAT FAILED
Setups that didn't work:
- **Big tech and growth names** – Despite some earnings beats, many tech stocks like **$MDB** (-24.67%) and **$GOOGL** (-2.07%) failed to hold gains, reflecting cautious sentiment amid geopolitical risks and AI trade rotation.
- **Travel and leisure stocks** – Names like **$NCLH** (-10.53%) and **$MAR** (-3.28%) suffered as Middle East conflict raised concerns about travel demand and flight disruptions.
- **Software stocks with cautious guidance** – Despite earnings beats, stocks like **$CORZ** and **$MDB** faced selling pressure due to cautious outlooks and AI disruption fears.
## AFTER-HOURS WATCH
Earnings or news to monitor tonight:
- **$TREE** (LendingTree) - Q4 beat on sales with strong Q1 and FY2026 sales guidance, but EPS missed estimates; watch for market reaction to mixed results.
- **$CORZ** (Core Scientific) - Q4 EPS beat but sales declined year-over-year; monitor for further clarity on crypto sector outlook.
- **$OUST** (Ouster) - Continued momentum after strong Q4 results and margin expansion; watch for further guidance updates.
## TOMORROW PREVIEW
**Early Watch:**
- **$PLTR** – Defense sector strength and AI demand could extend gains after +6.25% today.
- **$IPGP** – Strong Q4 and +5.23% move; potential continuation.
- **$SOFI** – +5.35% on CEO share purchase, could attract momentum traders.
**Catalyst:**
- Continued geopolitical developments in the Middle East impacting energy and defense sectors.
- Upcoming earnings from key tech and industrial names.
- Economic data on manufacturing PMI and inflation expectations.
**Bias:**
- Neutral to slightly bullish on energy and small caps, cautious on tech and consumer discretionary amid geopolitical uncertainty.
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