White House & Policy - March 05, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration has announced a significant policy push overnight focusing on energy security and AI innovation. Key executive actions include a voluntary pledge from major tech companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle to ensure AI data centers cover their electricity costs, aiming to mitigate rising power bills. This initiative reflects the administration’s commitment to balancing technological advancement with energy sustainability. Additionally, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission granted historic approval for Bill Gates-backed TerraPower’s next-generation Natrium reactor. This marks the first commercial nuclear reactor approval in the U.S. in decades, signaling a strategic pivot toward expanding nuclear power as part of the broader energy policy framework. Market sentiment heading into today’s session is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by these policy developments that support both energy infrastructure and AI growth. The administration is scheduled to deliver remarks later today on technology and energy policy, which could provide further clarity on regulatory directions. Congressional hearings on AI oversight and energy infrastructure funding are also on the docket, potentially influencing market dynamics. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures show a mixed reaction to the policy news. Technology-related futures are up, reflecting enthusiasm for the AI energy pledge and the nuclear approval, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising 1.01% to $607.66. The S&P 500 futures are modestly higher, up 0.29% at $682.30, while the Dow Jones futures are slightly down 0.27% at $484.22, indicating some sector rotation. The dollar is marginally stronger, with the UUP ETF up 0.11%, as geopolitical tensions and energy policy shifts support safe-haven demand. Long-term Treasury bonds are selling off, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 0.83%, reflecting expectations of higher yields amid infrastructure spending and inflation concerns. Oil prices have surged 4.22% to $94.01 per barrel on supply disruption fears linked to Middle East tensions, which dovetails with the administration’s energy security focus. Gold is also up 0.61%, benefiting from geopolitical risk and inflation hedging demand. Sector ETFs show clear divergence: Technology (XLK) is up 1.24%, led by AI-related optimism, while Energy (XLE) is down 0.29%, pressured by mixed signals despite rising oil prices. Healthcare (XLV) and Industrials (XLI) are down modestly, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of earnings and policy developments. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$AVGO** – Broadcom benefits from the AI energy pledge as its custom AI chip business is expected to exceed $100 billion in revenue by 2027, supported by increased data center demand. **$AMZN** – Amazon gains from the administration’s AI energy initiative and its role in the voluntary pledge, boosting investor confidence in its cloud and AI infrastructure. **$META** – Meta’s AI developments align with the administration’s tech focus, supporting its stock which is up 1.09% pre-market. **$VEEV** – Veeva Systems benefits from AI-driven growth and strong CRM retention, supported by positive analyst upgrades. **$PBF** – PBF Energy surges 12.65% as oil prices spike amid Middle East tensions, benefiting from energy supply concerns. **$BKNG** – Booking.com rallies 7.15% on optimism about AI-driven checkout innovations and travel industry resilience despite geopolitical risks. ### Potential Losers **$AAPL** – Apple is down 0.75%, pressured by a 37% YoY drop in iPhone shipments in China and cautious investor sentiment despite broader tech optimism. **$WMT** – Walmart falls 1.39% amid concerns over tariff complexities and cautious retail outlook amid geopolitical uncertainty. **$UPS** – United Parcel Service drops 2.85%, reflecting supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflict and cautious guidance. **$AEO** – American Eagle Outfitters declines 2.38%, impacted by mixed retail sector sentiment and earnings concerns. **$ILMN** – Illumina slips 1.20% despite strong earnings, as broader healthcare sector faces regulatory and policy uncertainty. **$CHRW** – C.H. Robinson falls 3.27%, pressured by logistics challenges and geopolitical supply chain risks. ## Trade & Tariff Watch No new tariffs were announced overnight. However, ongoing trade tensions with China persist, with the administration signaling continued scrutiny of supply chains, especially in semiconductors and critical minerals. China’s recent growth target cut to 4.5%-5% and export restrictions on diesel and gasoline add complexity to trade dynamics. Middle East conflict is disrupting global energy supply chains, prompting the U.S. to coordinate with allies on shipping security. This could lead to indirect trade impacts, particularly in energy and raw materials sectors. ## Sector Exposure - **Technology:** The administration’s AI energy pledge and nuclear approval boost tech sector sentiment. Companies involved in AI infrastructure and chip manufacturing, such as Broadcom and Nvidia, stand to benefit. However, regulatory scrutiny on AI and data privacy remains a risk. - **Energy:** Rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions and the nuclear reactor approval reflect a dual focus on traditional and advanced energy sources. Energy producers like PBF and Chevron face volatility from geopolitical risks and policy shifts. - **Healthcare:** Mixed earnings and regulatory uncertainty weigh on healthcare stocks. The sector faces ongoing policy risks related to drug pricing and FDA approvals, as seen in the modest decline of XLV. - **Industrials:** Supply chain disruptions and cautious industrial spending outlook create headwinds, with logistics and transportation firms like UPS and C.H. Robinson under pressure. ## What to Watch Today - Administration remarks on AI and energy policy, which could provide further guidance on regulatory frameworks and infrastructure spending. - Congressional hearings on AI oversight and energy infrastructure funding, potentially impacting tech and energy sectors. - Earnings reports from key retailers and biotech firms, including Kroger and Altimmune, which may influence sector sentiment. - Oil price movements amid Middle East tensions and their impact on energy stocks and inflation expectations. - Treasury yields and dollar strength as markets digest geopolitical risks and policy developments. This briefing highlights the intersection of U.S. government policy with market dynamics, emphasizing sectors and stocks most sensitive to current administration actions and geopolitical developments.