White House & Policy - March 11, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration overnight has focused on addressing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The White House announced coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and G7 partners on a proposed largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize global energy markets. This move aims to counteract supply disruptions caused by the conflict and ease upward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, the administration reiterated its commitment to maintaining inflation control, with recent data showing core inflation slowing in February. This supports the Federal Reserve’s stance on holding interest rates steady for now. There are no new executive orders or regulatory actions announced overnight, but the administration is expected to deliver remarks later today on energy security and economic resilience amid geopolitical risks. On the legislative front, Congress is scheduled to hold hearings on financial sector oversight and defense spending, reflecting heightened concerns over market volatility and national security. These sessions could influence market sentiment depending on any policy shifts or funding decisions discussed. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures indicate a cautious tone as investors digest the geopolitical risk premium and the administration’s strategic oil reserve release plan. The S&P 500 futures are slightly down, reflecting wariness about near-term economic disruptions. Energy sector ETFs are under pressure despite the reserve release announcement, as oil prices have surged over 1.6% overnight to $106.03 per barrel, signaling persistent supply concerns. The U.S. dollar is modestly stronger, with the UUP ETF up 0.25%, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Long-term Treasury bonds are selling off, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 1.7%, suggesting rising yields as inflation concerns linger despite the recent slowdown. Gold is up 0.61%, reflecting demand for traditional hedges against geopolitical risk. Technology sector ETFs are bucking the broader market weakness with a slight gain of 0.28%, supported by strong earnings from select AI-related firms. Conversely, financials, energy, and healthcare sectors are seeing declines in pre-market trading, reflecting sensitivity to inflation and geopolitical developments. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$ORCL** - Oracle’s stock is up 7.76% pre-market following a strong earnings beat and bullish AI demand outlook, benefiting from increased cloud and data center spending amid geopolitical uncertainty. **$NIO** - Shares surged 13.56% after reporting a Q4 profit inflection and robust vehicle deliveries, positioning well despite tougher 2026 outlook, supported by growing EV demand. **$ADM** - Archer Daniels Midland gained 2.3%, likely benefiting from supply chain disruptions in agriculture due to Middle East tensions, which could support commodity prices. **$MU** - Micron Technology rose 4.91%, reflecting strong AI chip demand and resilience in semiconductor markets despite broader tech volatility. **$BODI** - The Beachbody Company jumped 15.68%, possibly driven by sector rotation into consumer discretionary names seen as more defensive amid market uncertainty. ### Potential Losers **$AVAV** - AeroVironment plunged 13.98% after a harsh earnings miss and guidance cut, despite defense sector interest from geopolitical tensions. **$FANG** - Diamondback Energy dropped 5.47%, pressured by oil price volatility and concerns over energy sector earnings amid uncertain supply outlook. **$FICO** - Fair Isaac declined 10.63%, hurt by broad software sector weakness and tightening credit conditions flagged by JPMorgan’s pullback on private credit lending. **$HMY** - Harmony Gold Mining fell 9.84% despite rising gold prices, reflecting company-specific earnings disappointment. **$INTU** - Intuit dropped 4.23%, pressured by cautious guidance and concerns over consumer spending amid inflation and geopolitical risks. **$PLTR** - Palantir declined 3.66%, weighed down by profit-taking after recent gains and uncertainty over government contract renewals. ## Sector Exposure - **Energy:** The administration’s coordination on a historic strategic oil reserve release amid the Iran conflict is a key focus. Despite the release plan, oil prices surged 1.63%, reflecting ongoing supply fears. Energy stocks like **$XOM** (-1.42%) and **$FANG** (-5.47%) are under pressure, indicating market skepticism about near-term relief. Watch for further policy moves on drilling permits or pipeline approvals as the administration balances energy security with environmental goals. - **Technology:** The sector shows resilience with a 0.28% gain in the XLK ETF, buoyed by strong earnings from AI and cloud players like **$ORCL** and **$MU**. The administration’s emphasis on AI and data center infrastructure spending supports this trend. However, regulatory risks remain on antitrust and chip export controls, which could surface in upcoming congressional hearings. - **Financials:** The XLF ETF is down 0.93%, pressured by JPMorgan’s reported tightening of lending to private credit firms and broader concerns about credit quality. Congressional hearings on financial oversight today could add volatility. The dollar’s modest strength also impacts multinational banks. - **Healthcare:** The sector is down 1.04%, with mixed earnings results and ongoing scrutiny over drug pricing policies. Eli Lilly’s announcement of a $3 billion investment in China to expand supply chain capacity reflects global strategic positioning amid trade uncertainties. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on energy security and economic resilience amid Middle East tensions, which could influence oil prices and market sentiment. - Congressional hearings on financial sector regulation and defense spending, with potential implications for bank lending practices and defense contractors. - Key earnings releases from companies like Bumble Inc. and Codexis Inc. after market close, which could set the tone for tech and biotech sectors. - Inflation data and mortgage rate updates, with the MBA 15-Year Contract Rate and Effective Rate scheduled for release, providing insight into housing market dynamics amid rate volatility. - Market reaction to ongoing geopolitical developments in the Gulf, including any escalation or de-escalation signals that could impact oil supply and risk appetite. In summary, today’s trading session will be shaped by the administration’s strategic response to the Iran conflict, particularly the oil reserve release plan, alongside inflation data and financial sector scrutiny. Energy and financial stocks face headwinds, while technology and select consumer discretionary names may find support. Investors should monitor policy remarks and congressional activity closely for cues on market direction.