Catalyst Calendar - March 11, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Today's Catalyst Results How did scheduled events play out? - **Oracle (ORCL)** - Q3 2026 earnings beat expectations with strong revenue forecast and AI-driven cloud growth easing concerns about heavy AI investment costs. Resulted in an 8.28% surge in stock price to $161.77, marking a significant market rally amid broader geopolitical tensions. - **Bumble Inc. (BMBL)** - Q4 2025 earnings beat revenue estimates but continued user decline. Shares jumped 20.63% to $3.39, reflecting investor optimism on underlying business strength despite user metrics. - **TechTarget, Inc. (TTGT)** - Q4 2025 earnings call showed positive results with shares up 17.60% to $4.21, signaling strong investor reception to growth prospects. - **Kamada Ltd. (KMDA)** - Q4 EPS missed estimates ($0.06 vs. $0.08), sales also missed ($44.678M vs. $45.422M), shares declined 5.36% to $8.48 despite reaffirmed FY2026 sales guidance of $200M-$205M. - **Franco-Nevada (FNV)** - Q4 adjusted EPS beat estimates ($1.85 vs. $1.67), sales beat ($597.3M vs. $546.06M), shares rose 1.20% to $265.72, supported by strong precious metals demand amid geopolitical risk. - **Pacira BioSciences (PCRX)** - Issued statement reaffirming commitment to shareholder value amid activist pressure to replace CEO and consider sale process; shares rose 1.74% to $22.83. - **Sonida Senior Living (SNDA)** - Q4 2025 earnings miss, stock volatile with a 9.31% drop to $33.70, reflecting investor concerns over operational challenges. - **Serve Robotics (SERV)** - Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations, shares surged 7.96% to $10.44, reflecting optimism on growth in autonomous delivery services. - **Campbell Soup Company (CPB)** - Q2 2026 earnings call revealed weakness in snacks segment, shares fell 6.89% to $22.98, pressured by cautious guidance. - **Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS)** - Q4 2026 earnings call showed strong results, shares surged 79.75% to $2.84, indicating a sharp positive market reaction. - **Ares Management (ARES)** - Presented at RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026; shares declined 4.80% to $103.46 amid broader private credit market concerns. ## Surprise News Today Unexpected developments that moved markets: - **Oracle (ORCL)** - The company’s AI cloud backlog now sits at $553 billion, fueling a strong rally and alleviating fears of a "SaaS apocalypse" due to massive AI spending. This unexpected strength in AI-related demand drove shares up 8.28%. - **Archer Aviation (ACHR)** - Institutional buying of $22.5 million shares reported, shares rose 1.74% to $6.43, signaling renewed investor confidence in eVTOL growth potential. - **Broadwind (BWEN)** - Despite Q4 earnings call, shares dropped 9.08% to $2.19, possibly reflecting concerns over execution or market sentiment in energy equipment sector. - **Nio (NIO)** - Despite reporting first-ever quarterly profit, shares fell 4.74% to $5.43 amid mixed analyst reactions and cautious outlook for 2026. - **Morgan Stanley (MS)** - Limits redemptions on private credit funds amid market volatility, shares slightly up 0.09% to $160.89, highlighting stress in private credit markets. - **JPMorgan (JPM)** - Tightens lending to private credit firms, shares down 1.05% to $285.70, reflecting risk aversion in credit markets. - **Pacira BioSciences (PCRX)** - Activist DOMA Perpetual calls for immediate CEO replacement and formal sale process, shares rose modestly 1.74%, showing investor interest in potential strategic changes. - **Netskope, Inc.** - Shares tumbled 15% despite earnings beat due to lockup period expiry, highlighting volatility in cloud security stocks. ## After-Hours Catalysts Earnings and events happening tonight: - **Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG)** - Q4 2025 earnings call to be watched after shares surged 20.24% today, indicating potential for continued momentum. - **Bumble Inc. (BMBL)** - Additional insights expected following strong Q4 results and user metrics update. - **TechTarget, Inc. (TTGT)** - Further commentary on Q4 results and AI growth strategy anticipated. - **OppFi Inc. (OPFI)** - Q4 2025 earnings call scheduled; shares down 5.87% today, focus on credit portfolio quality and guidance. - **Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA)** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available; market will watch for turnaround plans after EPS miss. - **CuriosityStream (CURI)** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript released; shares up 1.59%, investors to assess subscription growth. - **Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS)** - Q4 2026 earnings call transcript released; strong share price reaction suggests positive outlook. - **Auna S.A. (AUNA)** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available; shares up 8.33%, watch for Latin America market trends. - **Kamda Ltd. (KMDA)** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available; focus on sales guidance and margin recovery. - **Franco-Nevada (FNV)** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available; investors to monitor precious metals outlook amid geopolitical risks. ## Tomorrow's Calendar Key events scheduled for tomorrow: - **February CPI Report** - Watch for inflation trends amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions; market expects steady inflation at 2.4% annual rate. - **Private Credit Fund Updates** - Continued focus on redemption pressures and lending conditions following Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan moves. - **Oil Market Developments** - IEA’s largest-ever coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves to counter Middle East supply shock; impact on oil prices and inflation closely monitored. ## This Week Ahead Other catalysts coming this week: - Wednesday: Federal Reserve meeting on March 17-18, with markets watching for policy signals amid inflation and oil price volatility. - Ongoing: Barclays and RBC Capital Markets conferences featuring multiple financial and industrial companies presenting strategic outlooks. ## Highest Conviction Setup Based on today's action and upcoming catalysts: - Stock: **Oracle (ORCL)** - Catalyst: Strong Q3 earnings beat, massive AI cloud backlog of $553 billion, and positive analyst upgrades. - Thesis: Oracle’s AI-driven cloud growth is defying fears of an AI spending bubble, positioning it as a leading beneficiary of the AI boom. The stock’s 8.28% rally today amid geopolitical uncertainty underscores strong investor conviction. Upcoming earnings calls and analyst upgrades should sustain momentum. --- The market showed risk-off sentiment with the S&P 500 down 0.69%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.56%, and Dow Jones down 1.21%, pressured by geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility. Oil surged 5.81% to $112.01, reflecting supply concerns from the Middle East conflict and the IEA's emergency reserve release plan. Gold declined 1.10% as traders weighed reduced rate-cut prospects. Treasury bonds sold off with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF down 1.65%, signaling rising yields amid inflation concerns. Investors remain focused on inflation data, private credit market stress, and the impact of geopolitical risks on energy prices and supply chains. Technology and AI-related names like Oracle, TechTarget, and Bumble outperformed, while cyclical and energy equipment stocks faced mixed reactions. The evolving Iran conflict and coordinated oil reserve releases will continue to drive market volatility in the near term.