Catalyst Calendar - March 12, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Major Catalysts Mentioned **Iran War and Middle East Conflict Impact on Oil Markets** - Date: Ongoing, with specific references to March 2026 - Why it matters: The Iran war is described as the largest global oil market disruption in history by the IEA, causing oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel. This geopolitical tension is driving significant volatility in energy markets, impacting supply chains, shipping routes, and inflation expectations worldwide. The conflict has led to tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, further exacerbating supply risks. - Stocks affected: **$XOM**, **$OXY**, **$MRO**, **$DVN**, **$OKE**, **$RJF**, **$CZR** **IEA Emergency Oil Reserve Release and Market Reaction** - Date: March 2026 (specific recent announcements) - Why it matters: The International Energy Agency’s record emergency oil release was intended to ease supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict but has failed to impress markets, with oil prices continuing to climb. This suggests ongoing supply concerns and potential for sustained high energy prices, which could pressure inflation and central bank policies. - Stocks affected: Energy producers and refiners such as **$XOM**, **$DVN**, **$FOSL** **Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca Abivax Bidding Deadline** - Date: March 23, 2026 (AstraZeneca holds exclusive access until this date) - Why it matters: Eli Lilly could re-enter the bidding for Abivax if AstraZeneca misses the March 23 deadline. This potential re-entry could affect valuations and strategic positioning in the biotech/pharma sector, especially around Abivax’s Phase 3 trial results expected in June. - Stocks affected: **$LLY**, **$AZN**, **$ABVX** (data not available for Abivax ticker) **Cisco Systems (CSCO) Beat-and-Raise Quarter Driven by Networking and AI Momentum** - Date: Reported recently, no specific upcoming date mentioned - Why it matters: Cisco’s strong quarterly results driven by AI and networking growth highlight the ongoing demand in enterprise technology and AI infrastructure, setting a positive tone for tech sector earnings and investment. - Stocks affected: **$CSCO** **Fossil Group (FOSL) FY2026 Sales Guidance Raised** - Date: FY2026 guidance recently updated - Why it matters: Fossil Group raised its FY2026 sales guidance significantly above estimates, signaling strong consumer demand and potential stock upside. This is notable given the consumer discretionary sector’s mixed performance amid inflation and economic uncertainty. - Stocks affected: **$FOSL** ## Earnings on Deck - **$ACDC** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue versus estimates in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services - **$ALH** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue estimates in Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances - **$AMTX** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Specialty Chemicals - **$BBW** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Specialty Retail - **$BKTI** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Communication Equipment - **$BLDP** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Electrical Equipment & Parts - **$CCLD** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Health Information Services - **$CION** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Asset Management - **$CRMT** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Auto & Truck Dealerships - **$DG** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Discount Stores - **$DKS** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Specialty Retail - **$DTIL** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Biotechnology - **$EH** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Aerospace & Defense - **$FUTU** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Capital Markets - **$GAMB** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Gambling - **$GIII** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Apparel Manufacturing - **$GPGI** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Metal Fabrication - **$GYRE** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Biotechnology - **$HBIO** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Medical Instruments & Supplies - **$HERE** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS in Leisure - **$HYFT** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Biotechnology - **$IPX** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Industrial Metals & Mining - **$JG** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS in Software - Application - **$LCUT** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances - **$LI** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Auto Manufacturers - **$MUX** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Precious Metals & Mining - **$OLLI** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Discount Stores - **$ORIO** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Software - Infrastructure - **$PHAR** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in Biotechnology - **$REFI** - Reports: March 12, 2026 - Key watch: EPS and revenue in REIT - Mortgage ## Economic Events - February 2026 CPI report released on March 11, 2026 at 12:30 PM showed inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year with monthly CPI at 0.3%, core CPI steady at 2.5% YoY. This steady inflation reading supports expectations of a stable inflation environment but with ongoing price pressures from energy. - Mortgage Bankers Association data for week ending March 2, 2026, released March 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM, showed mortgage rates slightly higher with 30-year fixed rate at 6.19%, purchase index rising, but refinance activity low, indicating housing market sensitivity to rate changes. - EIA weekly crude oil inventory data for week ending March 2, 2026, released March 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM, showed crude stock builds of 3.824M barrels, exceeding forecasts, but exports down, reflecting supply chain disruptions from Middle East tensions. ## Regulatory & Legal - No specific FDA decisions or court rulings with explicit dates mentioned in the headlines. ## What's NOT Dated But Worth Tracking - The ongoing escalation of the Iran war and its broader geopolitical implications on global energy supply chains and inflation. Watch for developments in tanker attacks, shipping disruptions, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. - Eli Lilly’s potential re-entry into the Abivax bidding process post-March 23 and the upcoming Phase 3 trial results in June could be significant for biotech investors. - The growing momentum in AI-related technology stocks, highlighted by Cisco’s strong quarter and Corning’s optical communications demand, suggests continued sector strength. - Private credit exposure risks flagged by Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley’s fund caps indicate caution in credit markets amid macro uncertainties. - Consumer discretionary trends, including Fossil Group’s raised sales guidance and mixed retail earnings, reflect evolving consumer behavior amid inflation pressures. ## Highest Conviction Catalyst - What: The Iran war and its unprecedented disruption to global oil supply as declared by the IEA, combined with the ongoing Middle East conflict impacting shipping lanes and energy prices. - When: Ongoing through March 2026, with key developments including tanker attacks and emergency oil reserve releases. - Why it matters: This event is driving a surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns globally and affecting energy stocks, shipping, and broader market sentiment. The conflict’s duration and severity will influence central bank policy decisions, commodity markets, and geopolitical risk premiums. - Trade idea: Energy sector stocks like **$XOM**, **$DVN**, and **$FOSL** could benefit from sustained high oil prices. Conversely, sectors sensitive to inflation and higher energy costs may face headwinds. Monitoring geopolitical developments and inventory data will be critical for timing trades. --- This briefing synthesizes explicit dates and events from headlines and integrates recent market data to highlight key catalysts for investors and traders.