White House & Policy - March 12, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration has taken a cautious stance overnight amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran. While no new executive orders were issued, the White House reiterated its commitment to managing energy supply risks and maintaining market stability. The administration emphasized diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict but signaled readiness to support energy market interventions if necessary. No new legislative developments were announced, but the administration is closely monitoring congressional sentiment as lawmakers prepare for key hearings on national security and energy policy scheduled for later today. The president is expected to deliver remarks on economic resilience and energy security in the afternoon, which could provide further clarity on policy direction and market implications. Market sentiment heading into the open is cautious, reflecting uncertainty over the duration and impact of the Middle East conflict. The administration’s messaging aims to reassure markets but has not yet alleviated concerns about sustained oil supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. ## Market Impact Pre-market trading shows a clear reaction to the geopolitical risk and the administration’s cautious policy stance. Energy-related sectors are rallying sharply, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) up 3.26% to $57.41, reflecting expectations of prolonged elevated oil prices. Crude oil futures have surged 7.77% to $114.09 per barrel, underscoring supply concerns. Conversely, financials are under pressure, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) down 2.04% to $49.04, as investors worry about the impact of higher energy costs on economic growth and credit quality. The broader equity futures are lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.71% and Dow futures down 1.39%, indicating risk-off sentiment. The U.S. dollar is modestly stronger, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, while long-term Treasury bonds are selling off, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 1.29% to $87.14, reflecting rising inflation expectations. Gold prices are slightly lower, indicating that investors are favoring oil and energy equities over traditional safe havens. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$XOM** (Exxon Mobil) - Elevated oil prices and supply concerns boost profitability and cash flow outlook. **$CVX** (Chevron) - Similar to Exxon, benefits from higher crude prices and increased energy demand. **$FOSL** (Fossil Group) - Consumer discretionary stock showing strength, possibly due to resilience amid inflation and energy price-driven consumer shifts. **$DMRC** (Digimarc) - Gains 13.64%, potentially benefiting from increased demand for security and tracking technologies amid geopolitical tensions. **$ALKT** (Alkami Technology) - Noted for strong institutional buying, may benefit from increased demand for fintech solutions in volatile markets. **$CINT** (CI&T) - Strong sales outlook and revenue beat suggest resilience in IT services despite market volatility. ### Potential Losers **$XLF** (Financials ETF) - Decline reflects concerns over credit risk and economic slowdown from rising energy costs. **$BLK** (BlackRock) - Down 3.44%, likely pressured by risk-off sentiment and exposure to private credit amid uncertainty. **$C** (Citigroup) - Down 2.17%, reflecting sector-wide financial pressure and risk aversion. **$EL** (Estee Lauder) - Down 5.06%, possibly impacted by consumer discretionary weakness amid inflation and geopolitical concerns. **$GIS** (General Mills) - Down 4.80%, facing margin pressure from rising input costs linked to energy prices. **$MRVL** (Marvell Technology) - Down 4.09%, reflecting tech sector caution amid macro uncertainty. ## Trade & Tariff Watch No new tariffs or trade negotiations were announced overnight. However, ongoing trade tensions with China remain a background risk, especially with upcoming high-stakes meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials. The administration continues to balance trade enforcement with efforts to stabilize supply chains, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors. ## Sector Exposure - **Energy:** The sector is the clear beneficiary of the administration’s focus on energy security amid the Middle East conflict. Elevated crude prices and supply disruptions are driving strong gains in energy stocks and ETFs. - **Financials:** Facing headwinds due to concerns over credit risk and economic growth amid rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Regulatory scrutiny remains steady but no new deregulatory moves are expected today. - **Technology:** Mixed signals as some tech stocks benefit from AI momentum and security demand, while others face valuation pressures amid macro risks. The administration’s ongoing scrutiny of AI and chip export controls continues to weigh on the sector. - **Healthcare:** Slight weakness persists amid inflation concerns and potential drug pricing debates, though no new policy announcements are expected today. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on economic resilience and energy security, which could influence market sentiment and sector rotation. - Congressional hearings on national security and energy policy, with potential for new legislative proposals or regulatory guidance. - Oil price levels and inventory data releases, as markets digest the impact of the Middle East conflict and the International Energy Agency’s statements on supply disruptions. - Key earnings reports from consumer discretionary and technology companies, including Dollar General and Cisco, which may provide insights into consumer spending and corporate investment trends amid policy uncertainty. - Treasury auction results and bond market reactions, as inflation expectations and fiscal concerns remain elevated.