White House & Policy - March 12, 2026 (EOD)

 ## Policy Recap The administration took decisive action today to address the surging oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. In a significant move, the president announced plans to temporarily suspend the Jones Act, a century-old shipping law that restricts domestic maritime transport to U.S.-flagged vessels. This suspension aims to ease fuel supply bottlenecks and curb rising gasoline prices, which have been exacerbated by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil tankers in the region. The administration also signaled readiness to deploy the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) more aggressively, tapping into emergency oil supplies to stabilize the market. On the legislative front, Congress remains gridlocked on several key issues, but the Senate is scheduled to vote next week on the Trump-backed SAVE America Act, which includes provisions for tax rebates to offset higher import costs caused by tariffs. This bill is closely watched by markets as it could influence consumer spending and inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, the administration’s trade policy continues to focus on maintaining pressure on China through tariffs and trade probes, with recent remarks underscoring a tough stance ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit. However, no new tariff announcements were made today. Throughout the trading session, markets digested these policy developments with heightened volatility. The initial reaction to the Jones Act suspension and SPR release was cautiously positive for energy prices but negative for broader risk assets due to concerns about inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks. The anticipation of congressional action on trade and tax relief added complexity to market sentiment, contributing to intraday swings. ## Market Reaction The major U.S. equity indices closed sharply lower, reflecting investor anxiety over the geopolitical and inflation outlook. The S&P 500 (SPY) declined 1.24% to $667.92, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 1.49% to $598.62, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 1.29% to $468.70. Small caps underperformed with the Russell 2000 (IWM) down 1.82% to $248.24, signaling risk aversion among more speculative segments. Treasury bonds saw modest selling pressure, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 0.21% to $86.96, as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pushed yields higher. The U.S. dollar index (UUP) strengthened 0.61% to $27.72, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions and expectations of sustained Fed hawkishness. Intraday volatility was pronounced, with oil prices surging nearly 10% (USO +9.91% to $118.76) on fears of prolonged supply disruptions. This spike in energy costs weighed on market sentiment, triggering sell-offs in sectors sensitive to input costs and economic growth. The risk-off tone dominated, with investors rotating out of growth and financial stocks into energy and defensive plays. ## Sector Scorecard - **Financials (XLF):** Declined 1.57% to $48.86. The sector was pressured by concerns over private credit exposure highlighted by Deutsche Bank’s warning of a $30 billion risk, as well as broader market risk aversion amid geopolitical uncertainty. - **Energy (XLE):** Gained 1.42% to $57.79. The sector was the clear beneficiary of the administration’s emergency oil measures and the surge in crude prices above $100 per barrel. Companies with upstream exposure and refining capabilities saw strong demand. - **Industrials (XLI):** Fell 2.51% to $165.24. Despite the energy rally, industrials were hit by worries over supply chain disruptions and higher input costs due to tariffs and the Middle East conflict, dampening growth expectations. - **Technology (XLK):** Dropped 1.82% to $137.87. Tech stocks faced selling pressure amid rising bond yields and risk-off sentiment, compounded by mixed earnings reports and concerns about capital expenditure growth slowing. - **Healthcare (XLV):** Declined 1.76% to $150.16. The sector was dragged down by earnings misses and cautious guidance from several healthcare companies, alongside broader market weakness. ## Winners & Losers ### Today's Policy Winners **$CF** +15.97% - Benefited from soaring fertilizer demand amid geopolitical tensions driving commodity price inflation. **$CE** +14.75% - Industrial materials firm rallied on expectations of increased infrastructure spending linked to energy and defense policy. **$AMTX** +24.03% - Renewable energy stock surged on policy support for clean energy investments and grid upgrades. **$ACDC** +21.82% - Energy-related company gained sharply amid the oil price spike and government focus on energy security. ### Today's Policy Losers **$ADBE** -8.61% - Adobe shares fell despite earnings beat, weighed down by CEO transition uncertainty and cautious outlook amid macro risks. **$ULTA** -11.99% - Beauty retailer’s stock plunged after mixed earnings and profit forecast, with management citing global conflict impacts on consumer behavior. **$ASTL** -15.70% - Steelmaker suffered from tariff-related cost pressures and concerns over slowing industrial demand. **$TBCH** -19.12% - Gaming and entertainment company hit hard by broader risk aversion and geopolitical uncertainty affecting discretionary spending. **$VXRT** -23.86% - Biotech stock declined sharply following earnings call amid sector-wide healthcare selloff. ## Trade & Tariff Update No new tariff announcements were made today. However, the administration’s ongoing tough stance on China trade policy remains a key market factor. The Senate’s upcoming vote on the SAVE America Act, which includes tariff-related tax rebates, is being closely monitored for its potential impact on consumer inflation and trade flows. Import/export sensitive companies like **$EXPD** (Expeditors International) discussed customs and importer requirements amid evolving trade landscapes, reflecting ongoing challenges in global supply chains. The tariff refund system is reported to be 40%-80% complete, but many retailers warn that consumers seeking refunds are unlikely to receive them soon, adding to trade-related uncertainty. ## Tomorrow's Policy Calendar - Senate vote expected on the Trump-backed SAVE America Act, focusing on tariff rebates and tax relief. - Congressional hearing on private credit risks following Deutsche Bank’s $30 billion exposure warning. - Administration officials scheduled to provide updates on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. - Potential regulatory announcements on bank capital requirements aimed at easing credit conditions. - Trade negotiations update expected ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, with possible statements on tariff policies. --- This session underscored the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments and government policy responses. The administration’s emergency moves to ease fuel prices provided some relief to energy markets but heightened concerns about inflation and economic growth. Investors remain cautious as Washington’s legislative and trade actions continue to shape market dynamics.