Catalyst Calendar - March 13, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Major Catalysts Mentioned **Adobe Inc.** - Date: TBD (CEO transition and $75 million lawsuit settlement reported) - Why it matters: Adobe’s $75 million settlement over fees and subscription cancellations, coupled with CEO transition news, could impact investor sentiment and stock valuation. The company’s Q1 2026 earnings call transcript is also available, indicating upcoming financial updates. - Stocks affected: **$ADBE** **El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.** - Date: Q4 2025 earnings reported; Form 4 filings on March 12 and 13 - Why it matters: El Pollo Loco beat Q4 EPS and sales estimates, yet the stock rating was reiterated as Market Perform by William Blair. Insider activity and earnings results may influence near-term price action. - Stocks affected: **$LOCO** **Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Developments** - Date: Ongoing, with talks involving France and Italy, and U.S. military statements reported recently - Why it matters: The Iran war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have caused oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel, impacting global energy markets and inflation expectations. This geopolitical tension is a major driver of commodity and equity market volatility. - Stocks affected: Energy sector broadly, including **$DOW**, **$MOS**, **$CF**, **$HNRG**, **$VMC** **Fed Inflation Data and Economic Growth Reports** - Date: Recent data releases on March 12; Core PCE Price Index steady; Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7% growth - Why it matters: Sticky inflation readings and slower GDP growth dampen rate-cut expectations, influencing market sentiment and fixed income yields. The Fed’s inflation gauge is critical for monetary policy outlook. - Stocks affected: Broad market, especially financials and interest rate-sensitive sectors **VEON Ltd.** - Date: Q4 2025 earnings reported March 13 - Why it matters: VEON reported strong Q4 results and received a reaffirmed Buy rating, making it a potential outperformer in telecom services amid geopolitical uncertainty. - Stocks affected: **$VEON** ## Earnings on Deck - **$AFYA** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: Q4 EPS beat by 24%, revenue in line - **$ACXP** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS estimate -1.0133 - **$BETR** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS estimate -2.0075 - **$BKE** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS estimate 1.5068 - **$CNTY** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: Q4 EPS missed by 29.9%, revenue slightly below estimate - **$CREX** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS estimate -0.0333 - **$EEX** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: Q4 EPS missed by 392%, revenue beat - **$EPRX** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS in line with estimate - **$EVEX** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS estimate -0.156 - **$KYIV** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS beat by 3.2%, revenue beat - **$RLX** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS missed by 23.8%, revenue beat - **$STKS** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: EPS estimate 0.182 - **$VEON** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: Strong Q4 results, reaffirmed Buy rating - **$DOUG** - Reports: March 13 - Key watch: Q4 EPS beat, stock dropped - **$APEI** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$LPRO** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$JYNT** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$CAPR** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$MUX** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$CRVS** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$RWAY** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$TTAN** - Reports: Q4 2026 earnings call transcript available - **$AFYA** - Reports: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$WDAY** - Insider stock sale reported (Duffield sold $15.3M shares) - **$ADBE** - Q1 2026 earnings call transcript available - **$LOCO** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$SNES** - Q4 2025 earnings call transcript available - **$PD** - Q4 2026 earnings call transcript available - **$JPM** - Mentioned in context of backing energy security stocks and market positioning ## Economic Events - Initial Jobless Claims (w/o Mar. 2, 2026) - March 12, 12:30 PM - Actual 213K vs Forecast 215K; signals labor market strength - Building Permits (Jan. 2026) - March 12, 12:30 PM - Actual 1.376M vs Forecast 1.41M; housing market softness - Housing Starts (Jan. 2026) - March 12, 12:30 PM - Actual 1.487M vs Forecast 1.348M; stronger than expected - Core PCE Price Index - Recent data steady, matching forecasts; key Fed inflation gauge - 30-Year Treasury Auction - March 12, 5:00 PM - Yield 2.45%, down from previous 2.66%; bond market reaction to inflation and geopolitical risks ## Regulatory & Legal - **$ADBE** - Settlement of $75 million to resolve U.S. lawsuit over fees and subscription cancellations; potential reputational and financial impact - **$GSK** - FDA expands approval of Arexvy RSV vaccine to adults aged 18-49 at risk; potential sales growth catalyst ## What's NOT Dated But Worth Tracking - Ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade continue to disrupt oil supply, pushing prices above $100 per barrel and fueling inflation concerns globally. Watch for developments in diplomatic talks and military actions. - Microsoft’s AI data center expansion in Texas and quality score improvements indicate strategic growth in AI infrastructure despite short-term technical headwinds. - Broadcom’s $100 billion AI vision has complexities; monitoring execution and market reception is key. - Meta’s delayed launch of revamped AI model could affect its competitive positioning in AI-driven advertising and social media. - Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions are boosting energy security stocks, with JPMorgan backing this sector. - Fed inflation data showing sticky inflation reduces chances of near-term rate cuts, influencing fixed income and equity markets. - Insider stock sales at companies like Workday and Box may signal management views on near-term valuations. - Semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks like Marvell, Applied Materials, and Lam Research are being repositioned amid the AI capex boom and geopolitical supply chain concerns. - Fertilizer and chemical stocks such as CF Industries and Mosaic are surging due to supply shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. ## Highest Conviction Catalyst - What: Ongoing Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Blockade - When: Current and evolving, with no fixed end date - Why it matters: This geopolitical conflict is the primary driver behind the surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel, causing ripple effects across global commodity markets, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums. The disruption threatens energy supply chains and is influencing central bank policy outlooks, particularly the Fed’s inflation stance. The conflict also impacts investor sentiment broadly, leading to equity fund outflows and heightened market volatility. - Trade idea: Consider energy sector exposure through stocks like **$DOW**, **$MOS**, and **$CF** which are benefiting from supply constraints. Monitor geopolitical developments closely for potential volatility spikes and opportunities in energy security plays supported by JPMorgan. Conversely, remain cautious on rate-sensitive sectors given sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. --- This briefing synthesizes explicit dates and events from the headlines and integrates them with recent market data to highlight actionable catalysts and themes for market participants.