White House & Policy - March 13, 2026 (Morning)

 ## Policy Overview The administration has maintained a firm stance on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Overnight, the president reiterated U.S. readiness to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, signaling a commitment to securing critical energy supply routes. This statement underscores the administration’s focus on energy security amid escalating regional instability. No new executive orders were announced, but the administration continues to emphasize strategic energy and defense policies. In addition, the U.S. Trade Representative has launched fresh Section 301 investigations targeting 60 economies over forced labor trade practices, reflecting an ongoing crackdown on unfair trade practices. This move signals continued pressure on global supply chains and trade compliance, with potential implications for importers and exporters. Today, the president is scheduled to deliver remarks on national security and economic resilience, while congressional committees will hold hearings on the administration’s trade enforcement actions and energy policy. These events are likely to provide further clarity on policy direction and could influence market sentiment during the session. ## Market Impact Pre-market futures show a cautious tone, with major indexes pointing to a modestly lower open. The S&P 500 futures have pared earlier losses but remain under pressure, reflecting investor concerns about geopolitical risks and their economic fallout. The Dow and Nasdaq futures are similarly subdued. Energy markets are reacting strongly to the administration’s comments on the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Middle East tensions. Oil prices surged 6.08% to $114.62 per barrel, reflecting heightened supply risk fears. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is up 0.97%, benefiting from the risk premium on crude. Conversely, sectors sensitive to geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty, such as Technology (XLK -1.21%) and Financials (XLF -1.01%), are under pressure. The U.S. dollar is strengthening modestly, with the UUP ETF up 0.85%, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Long-term Treasury prices are slightly lower, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) down 0.21%, indicating rising yields as bond investors price in inflation risks tied to higher energy costs. Gold prices are declining, down 1.28% to $470.13, suggesting that the dollar’s strength and risk-off sentiment are weighing on traditional safe havens. Bitcoin, however, is gaining 3.33% to $72,879.71, possibly reflecting its emerging role as an alternative store of value amid market volatility. ## Winners & Losers ### Potential Winners **$XOM** - Higher oil prices driven by Middle East tensions boost ExxonMobil’s revenue outlook and cash flow. **$CVX** - Chevron benefits from rising crude prices and increased energy security focus. **$MOS** - Fertilizer and chemical companies like Mosaic gain from supply chain disruptions and commodity price spikes linked to geopolitical risks. **$CME** - The CME Group’s derivatives business may see increased volume amid market volatility and hedging demand. **$APEI** - American Public Education benefits from stable government contracts and defensive sector positioning amid uncertainty. **$JYNT** - The Joint Corp. could see investor interest as a healthcare services provider in a risk-off environment. ### Potential Losers **$ADBE** - Adobe’s stock fell nearly 10% after announcing a $75 million settlement related to subscription fee disputes, compounding pressure from broader tech sell-off. **$META** - Meta Platforms slid 3.96% amid reports of delayed AI model launches, exacerbating sector-wide tech weakness. **$INTC** - Intel’s 4.61% decline reflects concerns over chip sector volatility and slowing demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. **$GIII** - G-III Apparel Group dropped over 10%, likely due to consumer discretionary risk aversion amid inflation and geopolitical concerns. **$LOAR** - Loar Holdings fell 7.47%, reflecting broader small-cap and speculative stock sell-offs in risk-off conditions. **$CRMT** - America's Car-Mart declined 20.10%, indicating heightened sensitivity to economic slowdown fears. ## Trade & Tariff Watch The U.S. Trade Representative’s initiation of new Section 301 probes into 60 countries for forced labor practices marks a significant escalation in trade enforcement. This move could lead to increased tariffs or import restrictions, particularly affecting supply chains reliant on goods from targeted nations. The administration’s focus on trade compliance aims to protect domestic industries but risks retaliation or disruption in global trade flows. No new tariffs were imposed overnight, but the threat of additional trade barriers remains elevated. This policy stance is likely to keep import-dependent sectors cautious and may pressure multinational companies with complex supply chains. ## Sector Exposure - **Energy:** The administration’s focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices create a positive backdrop for energy producers and midstream companies. The surge in oil prices to $114.62 per barrel supports higher earnings expectations for integrated oil majors and energy infrastructure firms. - **Financials:** The sector faces headwinds from geopolitical risk and market volatility, with bank stocks like **$BAC** and **$C** down over 2%. Increased regulatory scrutiny on trade and economic uncertainty may dampen lending and capital markets activity. - **Technology:** Tech stocks are under pressure from delayed AI product launches and regulatory/legal challenges, as seen with **$ADBE** and **$META**. The sector is vulnerable to risk-off sentiment and supply chain disruptions from trade probes. - **Healthcare:** Defensive positioning in healthcare is evident, but stocks like **$LLY** and **$AFYA** are down amid broader market weakness. Ongoing FDA approvals and drug pricing debates remain key policy risks. ## What to Watch Today - The president’s scheduled remarks on national security and economic resilience, which could influence market risk appetite. - Congressional hearings on trade enforcement and energy policy, potentially providing updates on tariff investigations and strategic reserves. - The impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations and Fed policy outlook, with markets sensitive to any hawkish signals. - Key levels on energy stocks like **$XOM** ($153.63) and **$CVX** ($196.10) as they respond to geopolitical developments. - Monitoring tech sector earnings and legal developments, especially for **$ADBE** and **$META**, which may drive intraday volatility.